What Makes - Or Breaks - Iowa Football in 2026

Make no mistake about it, the Iowa Hawkeyes are going to will their way into at least eight wins. It's what they do. Head coach Kirk Ferentz and Iowa haven't found fewer than eight wins in a full season since 2014. There is no reason to think that stops now.

Alternatively, every so often, Iowa blossoms into a 10-win team that can capture the hearts of the Midwest for its run-heavy, defense-reliant, and special teams-heavy style of play.

Entering 2026, the Hawkeyes have the horses on paper to rattle off a special year, but it depends on whether some things make or break them.

Looking into some of the way-too-early top 25 polls, which are more or less educated guesses and assumptions based on team names and logos in today's college football world of transfers, Iowa does find itself sneaking inside the cut line.

In CBS Sports' rankings, Iowa is sitting at No. 23, and while they have a star ready to shine on offense, an unusual suspect could be facing questions.

Do Iowa's Running Backs Determine This Team's Success?

Iowa Hawkeyes running back Xavier Williams (26) rushes for 29 yards scoring a touchdown during the second half of the game against the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday October 11, 2025 at Camp Randall in Madison, Wisconsin. | Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In CBS Sports' rankings, running back Kamari Moulton is the shining star for an Iowa offense that is currently in the midst of a quarterback battle between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown. No decision on that front is expected until fall camp, if not into the regular season.

Moulton isn't the only workhorse for Iowa's ground game, though. While he led Iowa with 878 yards last year, the Hawkeyes have Nathan McNeil and Xavier Williams ready. The duo combined for just 454 yards last year, but averaged 5.2 yards per carry, doing so on limited carries.

Joining this group is L.J. Phillips, the transfer from South Dakota, who ran for 1,920 yards and 19 scores at the FCS level last year. His presence, alongside the incumbents, has this running back group as the largest thing that can make Iowa's year in 2026.

Verdict: Very much true. With new quarterbacks, unproven receivers, and a tight end as the main target in the passing attack, this group is what determines Iowa's offensive success in 2026.

Is Iowa's Defense Truly a Worry?

Iowa Football’s Defensive Coordinator Phil Parker answers media questions Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2024 in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

Iowa's defense is usually known for its stingy style of play that frustrates teams and tests opponents' will to move the ball.

While Phil Parker, Iowa's defensive coordinator, is still there, he is going to attempt to do the same with a cast of many new characters. Those new faces are the reason for hesitation with Iowa in those same CBS rankings.

Three starting defensive linemen are gone, and so is half of the secondary. Can Iowa replenish the defense that quickly? Fortunately for Iowa, a large part of the newcomers have been with the program for some time.

Those newcomers need to be ready to go quickly. Iowa could be in a situation where an above-average defense may not be enough.

That's a high standard to set, but when the run game is your strength, and the quarterback competition is between two prospects with minimal game experience, coming back from deficits may not be a thing the Hawkeyes are all that capable of.

Verdict: Just barely true. It feels weird to say it, but Iowa is in unusual territory defensively. Phil Parker gets my benefit of the doubt, but at some point, does the tide turn?

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