2023 NCAA Tournament Preview: East Regional Breakdown
To get you ready for the start of the NCAA Tournament – whether you want to win your bracket pool or just can’t get enough March Madness talk – we’re diving deep into each region of the bracket.
The East region will take place (the regional finals, at least) in the biggest city (NYC) and will feature the biggest player (Zach Edey) along with some of the biggest brands in the game (Kentucky, Duke, and Michigan State).
But all but one team is going to come up short. Let’s dive in.
Biggest Storylines
Can Purdue make the Final Four for the first time since 1980? Purdue has had some great teams but hasn’t been able to always live up to expectations. Now it has the likely national player of the year and has been considered a title favorite for much of the year.
An interesting sub-plot is how “back” are Duke and Kentucky? There was a time early in the year where people wondered if either would make the tournament. Now they’re both comfortably in the field and looking to make it to the second weekend and beyond.
Best First-Round Matchup
No. 8 Memphis vs No. 9 Florida Atlantic
No. 5 Duke vs No 12 Oral Roberts
There are so many good first-round matchups in this region. I didn’t even mention Kentucky against Providence, where the Friars’ Bryce Hopkins faces off against the program he transferred out of last year.
Probably the best 8-9 game is Memphis against FAU. Memphis just won the AAC Tournament over Houston and has a stud in Kendric Davis, who is 10th in KenPom’s Player of the Year standings. But FAU is no average nine seed. The Owls have been ranked this year, are 26th in KenPom, and beat Florida on the way to a 31-3 record. Either of these teams could give Purdue a run for its money.
I also had to throw Duke-Oral Roberts on here. Duke is healthy and playing well and just won the ACC Tournament. And if you haven’t watched Oral Roberts and Max Abmas, you’re missing out. ORU has the country’s longest win streak at 17 and its losses are to Saint Mary’s, Houston, Utah State, and New Mexico; all top-55 KenPom teams. Abmas is averaging 22 points per game and is in the top 100 nationally in offensive rating. He’s must-watch TV.
Upset Pick(s)
No. 11 Providence vs No. 6 Kentucky
I won’t spend any more time on Oral Roberts, so I’ll go to Providence. The Friars did not have a good non-conference schedule and stumbled down the stretch, but have beaten UCONN, Marquette, and Creighton in the Big East. And Hopkins can take over a game, but also gets help from a strong supporting cast of Ed Croswell, Devin Carter, Noah Locke, and Jared Bynum.
What also makes this closer is Kentucky’s lack of guard play. Sahvir Wheeler hasn’t played since February 4 and the offense can get stagnant.
Cinderella Pick (double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16 or further)
No. 12 Oral Roberts
We’ve already talked about Abmas and the Golden Eagles for why they’re dangerous over Duke. But the chances of making the Sweet 16 are also amplified by the fact that the four seed in Tennessee is missing its point guard Zakai Ziegler for the rest of the year and really struggles on offense. I don’t think the Vols will lose to Louisiana in round one (watch it happen now) but ORU could take advantage of Tennessee’s weaknesses in round two.
Dark Horse Pick (five seed or higher than could win the region)
No. 8 Memphis
There’s no real spot to talk about Marquette or Kansas State yet, but a matchup between the two of them could be a lot of fun in the Sweet 16. I almost went with Michigan State as this pick (did you know the Spartans are shooting 39.5% from three as a team this year?) but the Spartans have struggled to tie wins together of late.
So I’m riding with Memphis. The Tigers have challenged themselves with power-five competition this year, beating Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Stanford, and Nebraska (as well as VCU) and losing to Alabama and Seton Hall. They have to take care of the ball because carelessness can cost them, but it’s a really athletic group of playmakers that play fast. And remember, Purdue plays multiple freshman guards who struggled under pressure in the Big Ten Tournament. Meanwhile, Memphis is the 11th most-experienced team in the nation.
Regional Final Prediction
No. 8 Memphis vs No. 2 Marquette
Weird things happen in the tournament. I like Purdue and Edey and wouldn’t mind seeing them succeed, but going 1-2 in each region is boring. I just talked about Memphis’ senior guards against Purdue’s freshmen, so give me Memphis to make a run.
In the bottom half, K-State is great offensively and has two All-Americans but turns it over so much that I can’t trust the Wildcats to win three straight. So I’ll go with a Marquette team that has won nine straight and only lost twice to UCONN and Xavier since Christmas. The job Shaka Smart has done this year has been wildly impressive. So I’ll say the Golden Eagles are in the Elite 8.
