BYU at Kansas Basketball Preview
Three days after Texas played its final game (for the foreseeable future) inside Allen Fieldhouse, the Kansas Jayhawks will welcome Big 12 newcomer BYU into the Fieldhouse for the first time in more than 50 years. The only other time the Cougars came to Lawrence was 1971 when BYU was ranked No. 6 and KU was unranked. Yet the Jayhawks won that matchup 83-67.
Here’s what to expect from the 2024 version of this matchup.
Opponent Overview
Team: BYU
Record: 19-8
KenPom: 18
Line: KU -6.5
Team Form
BYU entered the new year (and conference play) with a 12-1 record and since then have been about as even with its win-loss distribution as you can get. The Cougars started Big 12 play with two losses to Cincinnati at home and Baylor on the road and then rebounded with solid wins over UCF (in Orlando) and Iowa State at home. Then came another two-game losing streak to Texas Tech and Houston before winning another two against Texas and West Virginia.
BYU has won its last four home games – including a big victory over Baylor – but it has struggled on the road of late. After winning at West Virginia, BYU lost by 16 at Oklahoma, 10 to Oklahoma State, and 10 on Saturday to Kansas State. Most concerning for the Cougars is that they gave up 82, 93, and 84 points in those contests.
Players to Watch
The first thing that stands out about BYU is that it is incredibly balanced. The Cougars have five players averaging double figures and seven between 8.9 and 13.9 points per game. That leader at 13.9 points is Jaxson Robinson, who has been consistent with double-figure scoring outputs in each of his last five games and in eight of his last nine while coming off the bench.
BYU has plenty of shooters, with Trevin Knell being the best at 40.6% on 143 attempts. But all of them can shoot, as five Cougars have taken more than 100 threes on the year. That included 6-11 Noah Waterman, who is second on the team at 37%. The other strength of this team as a whole is its passing. That’s led by point guard Dallin Hall (five assists per game and a top 125 assist rate nationally) and Spencer Johnson.
Matchups to Watch
BYU has a specific style of play: it will live and die with the three. The Cougars take a higher percentage of shots from three than all but three other teams in the country with 50.2% of their shots coming from behind the arc. BYU has made 35% of those shots on the year but is only 32% during conference play. Still, the number of shots add up.
The Cougars have made 10+ threes in six of 14 conference games thus far. But that doesn’t necessarily equate to success. BYU is just 3-3 in those games when it has made 10+ threes. Part of that is also because the Cougars are allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from deep, which is No. 12 in the conference.
That’s why the X factor in this one might be who owns the paint. BYU is second in the conference in two-point shooting percentage behind only Kansas. But while KU also has the No. 2 two-point defense, the Cougars are down at eighth. In the last three road losses, BYU has allowed Oklahoma, OSU, and KSU to shoot 64%, 67%, and 61% from two-point range respectively.
This matchup actually resembles the Texas team KU just faced on Saturday in several ways, especially defensively. And like Texas, BYU doesn’t get to the free-throw line often, as they are the two worst teams at getting to the line in the Big 12.
Prediction
When Kevin McCullar was ruled out against Texas, I said on the Blue Wings Rising X (Twitter) that the biggest worry would be how his replacements were able to guard the three-point line and avoid breakdowns defensively in general. Nick Timberlake, Elmarko Jackson, and Jamari McDowell were up to the task and they will have to take it up another level on Tuesday.
BYU is going to make threes. That’s understood. The key is can KU stop the Cougars from getting anything easy around the rim and keep them to one shot per possession. And then on the other end, I really question whether BYU can stop KU on defense. Without McCullar, Kansas still put up 86 points on Texas, and the Longhorns rate out better defensively than BYU. If KU scores in the 80s again, I don’t think BYU has enough firepower on the road to win.
Kansas 84, BYU 75
Record ATS: 14-13
Record Straight Up: 22-5
(Last game: Kansas 86, Texas 67)
