ESPN Predicts NCAA Tournament Matchup Between Kansas and Arkansas

The analytics like the Jayhawks chances of advancing to the second round of the Big Dance

Mar 13, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard Dajuan Harris Jr. (3) drives to the basket around Arizona Wildcats forward Carter Bryant (9) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

On Thursday night in Providence, Rhode Island, two legendary Hall of Fame head coaches are set to face off in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Arkansas head coach John Calipari and Kansas head coach Bill Self, who have each won a national championship against the other, meet in a seven (Kansas) vs. ten (Arkansas) matchup. 

Our First Round matchup is set!

🆚 Arkansas
📍 Providence, RI
⏰ 6:10 p.m. CT
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/e2myxDL8cU

— Kansas Men’s Basketball (@KUHoops) March 17, 2025

While each squad has put together largely underwhelming campaigns to date, they both have supremely talented rosters, and basketball gurus at the helm, meaning a Final Four run is never out of the question.

But, with Kansas (21-12) and Arkansas (20-13) meeting in the first round, only one club will have an opportunity to make it down to San Antonio.

And according to ESPN’s analytics, the Jayhawks are fairly heavy favorites to advance to the next round, and take their first step toward a deep run in the Big Dance.

ESPN’s BPI Predictor gives Kansas a 71.0 percent chance of taking down Arkansas on Thursday night. Worth noting though, the Razorbacks have played the role of underdog all season long, and they’ve pulled off their fair share of upsets. 

Arkansas went into Austin, and despite Texas entering the contest with a 78.4 percent probability of successfully defending its home court, the Razorbacks largely cruised to a 78-70 victory in February.

Earlier this month, Arkansas put together a convincing showing in Nashville, knocking off a favored Vanderbilt squad (60.1 percent) by a final score of 90-77. 

And then, of course, the crown jewel:

An 89-79 win over Kentucky in a highly-anticipated matchup that marked Calipari’s return to Rupp Arena – a game Kentucky had a 77.7 percent chance of winning. All of that makes one thing abundantly clear: Arkansas can beat anyone on any given night.

While Kansas is certainly well-positioned to hold off Arkansas, and rightfully favored, don’t be surprised if the tenth seeded Razorbacks put up a fight, and potentially put an end to the Jayhawks season.