How Kansas Responds to Losses: What Do Blowouts Say About Postseason Success?
Sports seek and demand perfection, always striving for this unreachable goal. And to even get close to perfection is really, really difficult, even for the professionals dedicating their lives to it. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots who were 18-0 before losing to the (10-6 regular season) New York Giants in the Super Bowl.
For the college players who are still learning and growing, weird stuff is going to happen. An undefeated Kentucky team is going to lose to Wisconsin in the Final Four. One-seeded Virginia is going to lose to UMBC and then come back the next year and win a title.
The losses make us doubt everything. Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and for many, their accomplishments up to that point had an asterisk on them. That is, until they won it all.
Bringing the conversation around to Kansas basketball, the Jayhawks’ stock is low right now after the beat down Kentucky handed on Saturday. Only time will tell whether this is an outlier or an omen of more to come. And looking at past years’ results doesn’t necessarily have a clear indication on predicting the future. But there are some trends that at best can add context to the performance and at worst is fodder for us to talk about.
The Kentucky loss made me curious about what losses like this—and what comes next—mean in the greater scheme of things, if anything. And also, if the timing of when it happens has anything to do with it.
To start this series, I’m focusing on the losses themselves, looking back at previous Jayhawk teams and also past NCAA Championship teams with one question in mind.
Can you lose this bad and still go deep in the tournament?
I saw several people talk about how this team is only slightly better than previous underachieving Kansas teams. Again, it’s too early to know for sure, but I was curious how many other KU teams had a resume similar to this squad (read: mostly good but some blemishes to make you doubt things) this through January.
Here are the KU losses before February over the last 10 seasons and the team’s tournament success after it.
2021-22: 3 losses; 1 by 1-5 points, 1 by 6-10 points, and 1 by 11-19 points
Outcome: TBD
2020-21: 6 losses; 1 by 1-5 points, 2 by 6-10 points, 2 by 11-19 points, 1 by 20+ points
Outcome: Second round
2019-20: 3 losses; 2 by 1-5 points, 1 by 11-19 points
Outcome: Tournament canceled, but the betting favorites
2018-19: 5 losses; 2 by 1-5 points, 2 by 6-10 points, 1 by 11-19 points
Outcome: Second round
2017-18: 4 losses; 1 by 1-5 points, 2 by 6-10 points, 1 by 11-19 points
Outcome: Final Four
2016-17: 2 losses; 1 by 1-5 points, 1 by 11-19 points
Outcome: Elite Eight
2015-16: 4 losses; 2 by 6-10 points, 2 by 11-19 points
Outcome: Elite Eight
2014-15: 3 losses; 1 by 1-5 points, 2 by 20+ points
Outcome: Second round
2013-14: 4 losses; 3 by 1-5 points, 1 by 6-10 points
Outcome: Second round (no Embiid)
2012-13: 1 loss; 1 by 1-5 points
Outcome: Sweet 16
Again, past results do not completely indicate future results, but it does showcase that this team has performed, so far at least, similarly to past KU teams that made deep runs, went to the Final Four, or were Final Four favorites (thanks, COVID). Other Jayhawk squads have overcome a thorough beating and had (mostly) successful seasons.
So what about the teams that eventually did make it all the way to the title game?
2020-21: Baylor: 0 losses
Gonzaga: 0 losses
2019-20: No tournament
2018-19: Virginia: 1 loss; 1 by 1-5 points
Texas Tech: 4 losses: 1 by 1-5 points, 3 by 11-19 points
2017-18: Villanova: 1 loss; 1 by 6-10 points
Michigan: 6 losses; 3 by 1-5 points, 1 by 6-10, 1 by 11-19, 1 by 20+
2016-17: North Carolina: 4 losses; 1 by 1-5 points; 3 by 11-19 points
Gonzaga: 0 losses
2015-16: Villanova: 3 losses; 1 by 6-10 points, 1 by 11-19, 1 by 20+
North Carolina: 2 losses; 2 by 1-5 points
2014-15: Duke: 3 losses; 1 by 1-5 points, 2 by 11-19 points
Wisconsin: 2 losses; 1 by 1-5 points, 1 by 6-10
2013-14: UCONN: 4 losses; 2 by 1-5 points, 1 by 6-10, 1 by 11-19
Kentucky: 5 losses; 5 by 1-5 points
2012-13: Louisville: 4 losses; 3 by 1-5 points, 1 by 6-10 points
Michigan: 1 loss; 1 by 1-5 points
Two title game members over the past 10 years have been blown out by more than 20 points along the way before February and six lost at least once by 11-19 points in January or earlier.
This Kansas team has some work to do. The defense has to improve and play from the 4 and 5 spots have to be more consistent. But the weaknesses exposed by Kentucky do not necessarily sentence the Jayhawks to failure moving forward. There’s a long season to go and you don’t want to peak in January. The key is to keep getting better.
A big statement of a team’s strength is how it bounces back from bad games, which I’ll dive into in part two.
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