Kansas at Iowa State Basketball Preview
The road has not been a good place for the Kansas Jayhawks in Big 12 play. And now KU must go to Ames and try to come away with a win over Iowa State in Hilton Coliseum, one of the toughest environments in the country. And it’s still strange that this is the only meeting between these two this season.
Opponent Overview
Team: Iowa State
Record: 15-4
KenPom: 12
Line: TBD (KenPom projects Iowa State -4)
Team Form
Iowa State is off to a strong start to conference play at 4-2, especially considering four of the games were against top-30 KenPom teams. After losing the Big 12 opener in Norman, the Cyclones have beaten Houston, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State at home and TCU on the road, with the only loss coming at BYU (by 15).
It should be of no surprise that ISU has yet to lose at home, while being 3-4 in neutral site or road games. Though, the schedule hasn’t been too much of a gauntlet at home so far. Iowa State has only played two top-50 KenPom teams at home this season — Houston, as mentioned earlier, and Iowa, which (to the Cyclones’ credit) was a blowout.
What will be interesting to watch is if Iowa State can play a full game well. That’s been an issue of late. The Cyclones led by 12 at the half against K-State on Wednesday but KSU tied in in the first six minutes of the second half and kept it as a one- or two-possession game until two minutes left. Against TCU the game before, ISU led by 18 at the half before being out-scored 46-29 in the second half. And in the loss at BYU, a four-point Iowa State deficit expanded to 15 by the end of the game.
Players to Watch
The most well-known Cyclone is probably point guard Tamin Lipsey, who is leading the team with 14.1 points and 5.6 assists per game while also grabbing 5.3 rebounds. He’s also fourth in the country in steal percentage, so Dajuan Harris will have to take better care of the ball.
But the most consistent scorer for Iowa State has been freshman Milan Momcilovic. The 6-8 freshman wing has scored in double figures in 17 of 19 games this year and is shooting nearly 40% from three. He and fellow guard Keshon Gilbert — a transfer at UNLV — have added strong play to the wings. Gilbert fills up the stat sheet similar to Lipsey with 13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. Finally, Curtis Jones is on a hot streak, scoring 35 points combined in his last two games.
Iowa State’s strength is in its guards. Starting center Robert Jones shoots 67% from two-point range and is an excellent offensive rebounder, but hasn’t scored in double figures or grabbed more than four rebounds since the Oklahoma game on January 6. Trey King is similarly a rebounding threat and is efficient, but has struggled in conference play, only scoring a combined nine points and grabbing seven rebounds in the last two games.
Matchups to Watch
Priority No. 1 for Kansas: take care of the ball. Iowa State leads the nation in turnover percentage (26.6%) and steal percentage (16.2%). Those percentages are slightly down during conference play, but still lead the entire Big 12. According to Sports Reference, only two teams have turned it over less than 16 times against ISU, and those were the two teams to beat the Cyclones. Oklahoma turned it over 10 times and BYU had 11. Houston and KSU gave the ball away 16 times, OSU had 19 turnovers, and TCU committed a whopping 26 turnovers. This is a big reason why the Cyclones have the third best defensive efficiency in the country, but it’s also because ISU does a great job of protecting the paint.
On offense, Iowa State is similar to West Virginia in that it excels at drawing fouls and getting plenty of opportunities at the line. ISU is a top-30 team at getting to the free-throw line, but is only shooting 70% as a team. Like Kansas, the Cyclones don’t take a ton of threes. The most they have taken is 21 — going 7-21 in each of the last two games — and haven’t made more than seven threes in a game against Big 12 teams and no more than 10 against any team this year. Another similarity to the Jayhawks is Iowa State’s sharing of the ball. ISU is 20th nationally in assists per field goals made.
Prediction
I’m curious to see how having a few days of rest helps Kansas. The Jayhawks are clearly banged up — Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson are dealing with knee bruises — and after playing twice in three days, the five days between games was needed. Can KU bring a renewed energy it has been lacking the past few games? Iowa State does not have that luxury, having played 48 hours after KU’s game ended.
This also feels like it will be a game of runs. Both offenses can get red hot and then go long stretches where they struggle to score. Because of that, it’s hard to picture a blowout unless Kansas turns it over 20 times. Kansas also has a clear advantage in the post offensively with KJ Adams and Dickinson. The question is can KU’s guards match Iowa State? Strange as it sounds, if Kansas had won either of the UCF or WVU road games, I think Iowa State gets the Jayhawks here. But because of how badly those trips went, I think Bill Self has the team’s full attention and it ekes out a close win.
Kansas 67, Iowa State 65
Record ATS: 10-9
Record Straight Up: 16-3
(Last game: Kansas 75, Cincinnati 68)
