Kansas at Texas Basketball Preview: Something Left to Play For
With the help of TCU, Kansas has already clinched the Big 12 title outright heading into the season finale at Texas. But that doesn’t mean this game is completely meaningless.
The Jayhawks are in the hunt for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and for a spot in the Midwest regional, which would mean playing in Kansas City versus Las Vegas if they got sent out west (and Houston goes to the Midwest).
Opponent Overview
Team: Texas
Record: 22-8
KenPom: 10
Line: TBD
Team Form
Texas had by far the toughest schedule to end the regular season in the Big 12. Sandwiched between home games against Iowa State and Kansas were road matchups against Baylor and a finally healthy TCU, and that was where the Longhorns struggled.
Texas lost those games by a combined 11 points, though the first 28-ish minutes of the TCU game were not as close as the final score would indicate. This has been a problem with the Longhorns all year. UT’s last six losses have come on the road and Texas is 4-5 on the road in conference play.
The flip side is Texas is great at home. The Longhorns have only lost once at home all year and that was a 116-103 lost to Kansas State back on January 3. Add in that it will be Texas’ senior day and that is a dangerous environment to walk into.
Players to Watch
Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen are the biggest names for the Longhorns, but I have to start with Sir’Jabari Rice. Rice is averaging nearly 17 points over his last four games and that has been his pace since the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. And Rice has become terrifying from behind the arc. Rice has hit 12 of 25 from three in the last four games and is up to 38% on the year. Kansas got Rice on a cold night the first time around, as he only hit one of five threes and 12 points overall.
Carr is also on a tear of double-digit games that is now at eight, which includes his scorching 29 points against KU. But Carr only dropped 11 and 10 against Baylor and TCU, respectively, and he’s the opposite of Rice from three of late. Carr is just 7-30 from deep in the last four games, but he has done a better job of taking care of the ball since his four turnovers against the Jayhawks.
Allen is one that has become a turnover liability with 13 turnovers in his last four games. Kansas will need a bigger answer against him this time around in the post, as Allen got to the line eight times and went 6-12 from the field for 18 points. Finally, Tyrese Hunter has had a rough February, including six points and three turnovers against Kansas, but he has figured it out of late. Hunter has scored 15, 13, and 15 in his last three while getting more involved in the passing game and creating steals.
Matchups to Watch
We know what Texas’ offense is capable of on any given night. The Longhorns are second in offensive efficiency during Big 12 play and a lot of that is hitting a second-best 35.9% from three. This was something we didn’t see much of in the first matchup as UT was just 6-19 from deep.
The Longhorns have also done a decent job of not turning it over much – Texas and Kansas are virtually identical in turnover rate in conference games – but the Longhorns had 15 turnovers to Kansas’ 11 in Lawrence, including eight Kansas steals. Dajuan Harris had four of those on his own.
Defensively is where Texas has struggled, especially when it is unable to turn opponents over at a high clip, like it failed to do against Kansas the first time around. Texas is last in opponent three-point percentage, ninth in opponent offensive rebounding percentage, and seventh in opponent free-throw rate. Kansas didn’t even take advantage of Texas’ three-point defense in round one, only shooting 2-10 from deep. But the Jayhawks grabbed 14 offensive boards and shot 54.5% from two-point range.
The key to a victory Saturday is for Kansas to win the turnover battle, attack the offensive glass, and don’t let Texas get hot from deep.
Prediction
There’s been a lot of speculation amongst fans since Wednesday night that Kansas might take its foot off the gas now that the outright Big 12 Championship is secured. I just don’t see that happening. Bill Self is the most competitive person in the state and again, if you care about Kansas playing the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 in Kansas City, a win on Saturday goes a long way toward that being a reality.
All of that is to say I don’t think we’ll see a lack of effort by Kansas. I think some of these Jayhawks like playing the villain and would love to spoil the party. They may still lose, but I think that would be more of what Texas did instead of the Jayhawks. Texas is great at home and will be honoring five seniors in their final home game. The atmosphere will be electric, as Kansas is used to in road environments.
I hope I’m wrong, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Gradey Dick has a bounce-back game and the offense plays well but Texas hits just too many big shots in a close game.
Texas 78, Kansas 76
Prediction record
16-12-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 79-71 KU | Actual: 67-63 KU
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