Kansas vs. Harvard Basketball Preview: Avoiding the Pre-Holiday Trap
Kansas has one more contest before players go their separate ways for a quick holiday celebration with family. And while Harvard is not as tough of competition as the Jayhawks have faced the last few weeks, this is a dangerous spot with the potential for players to look ahead to a few days off.
Kansas dropped the final game before Christmas two years in a row in 2018-19 and 2019-20—road losses to Arizona State and Villanova respectively. And if you go back further, you’ll find the 77-52 shellacking by Temple in 2015. The Davidson loss a few years before that also comes to mind, though that was not technically the final game before the break (that was a road win against USC). The difference is this game is at home. Still, Kansas can’t take this one off or else it won’t be as merry of a Christmas.
Opponent Overview
Team: Harvard
Record: 8-4
KenPom: 182
Line: TBD
Team Form
Harvard started the season out strong at 5-1, looking to build on a 13-13 year a season ago under Tommy Amaker. But the Crimson had gone 2-3 in its last five heading into this week. And only one of its wins had been against a top-200 KenPom team (No. 130 Loyola Chicago), while two of the wins were against non-D-I teams.
The Crimson have yet to see power-five competition and its game Tuesday night against UC Irvine was its first against a top-100 KenPom team. Or rather, it was until Harvard won the game, knocking UC Irvine down to No. 102. Though the 62-57 road win did bump the Crimson up 17 spots in KenPom.
The timing is also worth noting. Harvard went from Irvine, California Tuesday night to Lawrence for the game Thursday, which is a tough turnaround, especially given that this Kansas team in Allen Fieldhouse is a different level of competition that Harvard has yet to experience.
Players to Watch
By far the most productive player on Harvard’s roster is 6-6 forward Chris Ledlum. Ledlum is averaging 18.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game while shooting 64% from inside the arc. Ledlum has scored in double figures in all but one game and has scored 20 or more in four contests, including 30 against Loyola Chicago. He is the unequivocal go-to guy on offense.
Ledlum is the only Crimson player averaging double figures. But three players—Chisom Okpara, Samuel Silverstein, and Luka Sakota—provide a balanced attack, averaging between eight and nine points per game and at least four rebounds a game.
Matchups to Watch
The first thing that immediately jumps off the page when looking at Harvard is that this team is not going to beat opponents from beyond the arc. Harvard shoots just 24.9% from 3—which is 361st nationally—and takes 3s just 36% of the time.
The Crimson also only shoot 67.7% from the free-throw line and turn it over nearly 21% of the time, which, combined with the three-point shooting, is about the worst way to try and win in a place like Allen Fieldhouse. Harvard has been strong from inside the arc (shooting 56.9%) but that could be a bit misleading given the level of opponents.
It’s also worth pointing out that where Harvard has excelled defensively is behind the arc, holding teams to 28% shooting from three-point range. UC Irvine shoots better than 39% from three on the year and the Crimson shut the Anteaters down to 2-14 from 3 on Tuesday.
Prediction
The weather in Lawrence—snow and bitter cold—might be the only thing to give Harvard a break in terms of potentially neutralizing the environment to an extent, but the on-court matchup doesn’t give Harvard much of a chance. Kansas should be able to turn the Crimson over and the Jayhawks’ length should keep Harvard from being too efficient inside the paint.
This is KU’s final game before Big-12 play starts, which means it’s a great opportunity for Kansas’ bigs, as well as guys like MJ Rice and Bobby Pettiford, to get a healthy amount of playing time and confidence going into the second half on the season.
Give me the Jayhawks by a comfortable margin.
Kansas 81, Harvard 63
Prediction record
7-4 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 75-67 KU | Actual: 84-62 KU
