Kansas vs Iowa State Basketball Preview: Why Free Throws Could Be Key
Kansas has won both Big 12 games at home, but were playing with fire in both instances. The Jayhawks trailed by double digits in the second half against both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma before surging late behind a crazed crowd.
Iowa State is a different level of opponent, though. And if Kansas messes around and doesn’t play its A or B game, it might face a different outcome. It’s only five games into an 18-game conference season, but with both teams 4-0 in the league, this matchup could have some major implications given that Kansas still has to travel to Ames.
Opponent Overview
Team: Iowa State
Record: 13-2
KenPom: 17
Line: TBD
Team Form
The Cyclones are on a six-game winning streak, having not lost until December 8 when it fell to Iowa 75-56 on the road. Its only other loss is on a neutral site to UCONN as part of the Phil Knight Invitational.
Not only has Iowa State won all four Big 12 games, but the two that took place in Hilton Coliseum were no-doubters. ISU beat Baylor by 15 on New Year’s Eve and is now coming into this matchup after smoking Texas Tech 84-50 in Ames. The road wins were closer – beating Oklahoma 63-60 and TCU 69-67 – but impressive, nonetheless.
Players to Watch
Iowa State’s start has been driven by guard play. St. Bonaventure transfer Jaren Holmes is leading the team in scoring at 13.1 points per game and a second-best 3.2 assists. But it’s the two seniors in their second year with the program that are the names you have likely heard the most. Gabe Kalscheur and Caleb Grill are both averaging 11 points per game. And all three – including Holmes – are shooting at least 33% from three, and two of them are at 37% and above.
The top six players for the Cyclones are seniors, including fellow St. Bonaventure transfer and 6-10, 220-pound big man Osun Osunniyi and 6-8 forward Alijaz Kunc, who are both averaging eight points per game. Then there’s hometown freshman Tamin Lipsey. Lipsey is averaging seven ppg and while he’s not a threat from three, he’s shooting 60% from inside the arc. He’s also leading the team in assists (4.7) and is averaging nearly two steals per game.
Matchups to Watch
Iowa State is one of the best defenses in the country and there are no shortage of reasons why, but there’s one obvious place we have to start. Kansas is going to have to take care of the ball. No team forces a higher percentage of turnovers nationally than Iowa State, who turns opponents over on a whopping 29.8% of possessions. And it’s not just one way. The Cyclones are the nation’s best at non-steal turnovers, but also fourth best in steal percentage.
ISU has also been great at three-point defense, holding opponents to 30.1% shooting. It has been less dominant defending the paint, but still strong. But while its shot-blocking ability is also top-75 nationally, the weaknesses are on ending possessions and giving up free points. The Cyclones are letting teams grab offensive boards on 30.5% of possessions (246th nationally) and are 289th nationally in sending teams to the line.
This was how UCONN won. The Huskies turned it over 19 times but got to the line 25 times (hitting 20) and grabbed 21 offensive rebounds (63.6%). Iowa also had 18 turnovers in its matchup with ISU but got to the line 19 times (hitting 15) and it also helped that the Hawkeyes hit 12 of 23 from three.
Like Oklahoma, ISU wants to slow the game down. The Cyclones play at a pace slightly faster than OU, but still one that is 294th fastest. And Iowa State has its own turnover problem, giving it away 19% of the time. While Iowa State’s starting guards all shoot it well from three, the Cyclones don’t take many shots from deep as a team. Only 33% of their field goal attempts are from deep, and ISU is shooting 35% on them.
Prediction
There’s a decent chance this is another ugly game. Iowa State will want to slow it down and turn it into a defensive battle, and of course, force turnovers. Kansas has actually been solid at taking care of the ball, only turning it over on 17% of possessions, hasn’t turned it over more than 13 times in a Big 12 game, and only had six turnovers against Oklahoma.
It’s unlikely Kansas shoots as poorly and misses as many point-break shots as it did on Tuesday. Iowa State won’t make it easy on them, but the likelihood of Gradey Dick, Jalen Wilson, and Kevin McCullar going 4-19 from two is small.
But the Jayhawks have to get to the line. If KU only shoots 4-10 free throws like it did in its first two Big 12 games, it will need a lights-out shooting performance to make up for it. But if Kansas can get to the line 20 times to counterbalance any turnover issues, I like the Jayhawks’ chances at home.
If this game was in Ames, I think I might be picking the Cyclones. But after what I’ve seen in Allen Fieldhouse to start conference play, I can’t go against the Jayhawks in this spot at home.
Kansas 73, Iowa State 67
Prediction record
9-6-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 74-63 KU | Actual: 79-75 KU
