Kansas vs. Kansas State Basketball Preview: KU's X-Factors in the Rematch

Two weeks after the first matchup in Manhattan, the Jayhawks look to rebound against the Wildcats in Lawrence on Tuesday.

Kansas was able to right the ship and stop the losing streak with a win at Kentucky over the weekend. Now the Jayhawks will have their sights set on revenge as Kansas State comes to Lawrence. Let’s take a second look at the Wildcats.

Opponent Overview

Team: Kansas State

Record: 18-3

KenPom: 25

Line: KU -7 (opened KU -6)

Team Form

If you’re waiting for a regression from Jerome Tang’s team, it hasn’t come yet. But the Big 12 is a beast and road wins are hard to come by, as the Wildcats have learned.

K-State is in a three-way tie for first in the conference with Iowa State and Texas at 6-2 after falling to the Cyclones by four in Ames last Tuesday. Both Big 12 losses have come on the road for the Wildcats in their last two attempts (the other being at TCU on January 14). But KSU took care of business at home during the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, handling an inferior Florida team 64-50.

Players to Watch

We talked at length ahead of the first matchup of K-State’s two All-American candidates Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Johnson played like one in round one, scoring 24 points and grabbing eight rebounds, but Nowell struggled with his shot. Nowell only scored four points and went 0-4 from three, though he still made an impact with seven assists and four steals. Nowell bounced back with back-to-back 20+ point games coming off the overtime win, and most recently had 13 points and eight assists against Florida.

The surprise was sixth man Desi Sills, who scored 24 against KU in Manhattan and hit two of three from deep, despite shooting 24.5% on the season. Not-so-fun fact: Sills is 0-6 from three since the matchup with the Jayhawks. He has scored a combined five points in the three games since playing KU.

The other main factor for the Wildcats on January 17 was big man Nae’Qwan Tomlin, who had a 15-point, 10-rebounds double-double against the Hawks.

Matchups to Watch

Going back through the box score of the first matchup, the numbers are eerily similar:

Points per possession

KU: 1.04

KSU: 1.05

Two-point percentage

KU: 64.5% (20-31)

KSU: 41.9% (18-43)

Three-point percentage

KU: 20.7% (6-19)

KSU: 41.9% (7-17)

Offensive rebounds

KU: 12

KSU: 11

Defensive rebounds

KU: 26

KSU: 27

Free Throws

KU: 24-34

KSU: 26-33

Assists

KU: 21

KSU: 12

Turnovers

KU: 15

KSU: 15

There’s not a lot that separated these two last time. KSU is one of the best at scoring off assists, but it was KU who excelled at getting good looks at the basket through ball rotation. It also shows how K-State’s strengths on one end are also its flaws. The Wildcats force turnovers, but turn it over a bunch themselves. Same with offensive rebounding and getting to the line.

One thing to watch: Ernest Udeh did not play in the first game and instead KU got 11 combined minutes from Zach Clemence and Zuby Ejiofor. Bill Self already said Udeh will be the first big off the bench, and given his performance at Kentucky, could he be in line as a breakout player to spell KJ Adams and battle Tomlin down low?

Prediction

For the sake of everyone watching, I hope we don’t see 49 foul calls in 45 minutes of play like we did in the first meeting. And just like against Kentucky, I hope we do see the type of energy and effort on defense, the glass, and driving to the basket from guys like Kevin McCullar, Dajuan Harris, and KJ Adams. Driving downhill will be key. Kansas was great inside the arc in Manhattan and need to keep putting pressure on the K-State interior defense.

McCullar and Udeh are the X-factors. McCullar had arguably his worst game as a Jayhawk in Manhattan and Udeh didn’t play. If they can replicate their performances in Lexington, that’s a big advantage for KU.

Picking K-State here is a tall task. Not only are you picking a team to sweep Kansas—something that virtually never happens under Self (just twice)—but you’re also predicting two losses in Allen Fieldhouse in the same month (even more rare). As loud as it was in Manhattan, it will be just as loud or louder in Lawrence, and one team will have revenge to settle.

I’ll take Kansas in another entertaining game and hope we can get a tiebreaker in the Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas 79, K-State 74

Prediction record

11-8-1 ATS

Last game – Prediction: 77-73 KU | Actual: 77-68 KU