Kansas vs Oklahoma Basketball Preview: Can the Sooners Slow Down the Jayhawks?
Kansas is back at home after a week on the road as the owner of an eight-game winning streak and 3-0 record to start Big 12 play. And while next up is a rare upcoming game against a non-ranked team, Oklahoma is yet another team that can catch its opponent on any given night.
Opponent Overview
Team: Oklahoma
Record: 10-5
KenPom: 31
Line: KU -9.5
Team Form
The Sooners are 1-2 to start league play, but those two losses were by a combined four points against now-ranked teams (Texas and Iowa State). In fact, all five losses this year are to top-85 KenPom teams and only one was by double digits (an 88-78 loss to Arkansas on a neutral court).
But OU is coming into this matchup with some confidence after an overtime win at Texas Tech over the weekend where Tech overcame a double-digit OU lead before the Sooners put them away.
Players to Watch
There are quite a few themes across the Big 12 so far this year, and one of those is the roster domination by transfers and seniors (and transfer seniors). OU’s top four players are all seniors, and only Jalen Hill (9.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game) has been in Norman all four years.
Leading the way offensively is Wichita State and Nevada transfer Grant Sherfield, who is averaging 16.9 ppg and 3.5 assists. He is one of the league’s best shooters, knocking down 46.4% of his threes on 5.6 attempts. Tanner Groves is the only other player averaging double figures (10.7 points, 7.2 rebounds), while his brother Jacob is averaging 9.5 ppg.
This is not a deep team. OU only plays an eight-man rotation, and the bench is made up of freshmen and sophomores, so it should be no question who has to play well for Oklahoma to win.
Matchups to Watch
A track meet this will not be. Oklahoma plays one of the slowest tempos in the nation. The Sooners have been efficient in the half court, with top-25 efficiency from both three- and two-point range. But OU also turns it over nearly 20% of the time.
The Sooners also don’t have the profile of the past couple of opponents. OU does not crash the offensive glass at all, only grabbing offensive boards 22.4% of the time (338th nationally). They also don’t get to the line very often, with free-throw attempts per field goal attempts ranking 268th in the country. To Oklahoma’s credit, opponents struggle to grab offensive boards and get to the line against them as well.
Kansas will need to get out and run off turnovers when it can, and if it can extend possessions more than Oklahoma and get to the line — an area it struggled with before the West Virginia game — the Sooners would need a big shooting night and some incredible individual performance to win.
Oklahoma hasn’t scored 70 points yet in conference play, so this may be first to 70 wins.
Prediction
KenPom has KU favored by nine, which aligns to the Vegas line. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if OU has it closer than that at halftime. Nine of Oklahoma’s 15 games have been decided by single digits. So while Kansas is clearly the better team, the Sooners are tough to put away. Part of that is the pace of play. Fewer possessions limits the potential for extreme routes. But this is also a veteran and disciplined team.
I’m curious to see how Kansas shoots it in this one. The Jayhawks have been on fire from deep of late and they usually shoot better at home. The drastic difference in style of play in the Tanner Groves-KJ Adams matchup is also fascinating.
This isn’t probably a game KU fans have had circled on their calendar, but it’s also not one Kansas can afford to lose. You can’t drop home games against lesser opponents (and to be clear, lesser in the Big 12’s sense is still pretty dang good) on the way to a conference title.
I think Gradey Dick gets hot from three, Adams scores in double figures, and Kansas earns another victory in Allen Fieldhouse, even if it’s not always easy.
Kansas 74, Oklahoma 63
Prediction record
9-5-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 71-66 KU | Actual: 76-62 KU
