Kansas vs West Virginia Basketball Preview: WVU's Jekyll and Hyde Tendencies
It’s hard to believe we’re already to the point in the year where there are only two more games in Allen Fieldhouse for the 2022-23 season. And these are must-haves if Kansas wants a shot at a Big 12 title, starting with West Virginia on Saturday.
Opponent Overview
Team: WVU
Record: 16-12
KenPom: 21
Line: TBD
Team Form
There are a handful of Big 12 teams who are full-on Jekyll and Hyde when playing on the road compared to at home. Iowa State and Kansas State are this way, and West Virginia is as well. The Mountaineers have only won one road game in conference play this year and that came on January 25 at Texas Tech. Meanwhile, WVU is 5-2 in its last seven at home.
A convincing 85-67 win on Monday against Oklahoma State stopped a three-game losing streak for West Virginia, which started with a 94-60 blowout at Texas and included a 79-67 loss at Baylor. Kansas fans should be thankful the trip to Morgantown it’s already out of the way, because TCU, Auburn, Iowa State, and both Oklahoma teams have fallen victim there since KU won 76-62 in early January.
Players to Watch
West Virginia desperately needs senior transfer Erik Stevenson to play well on Saturday if it wants to win. Stevenson is the Mountaineers’ leading scorer and is coming off back-to-back games in which he has scored 23 and 27 points while shooting 11-20 from three.
But Stevenson has struggled against the top of the Big 12. He has been held to single digits six times against the likes of Baylor, Texas (twice), Iowa State, TCU, and K-State. And despite shooting 40% from three on the year, Stevenson is only shooting 24% against what KenPom defines as Tier A competition, which are teams ranked in the top 50. In the first meeting against Kansas, Stevenson scored 12 but did so going 4-14 from the field and 0-5 from three while turning it over three times.
Tre Mitchell is another Mountaineer looking to break out of a slump. His 22 points Monday against Oklahoma State was his first double-digit game since scoring 15 against TCU in a loss on January 31. Mitchell did lead WVU in scoring against Kansas in Morgantown with 15.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Bell is the best offensive rebounder in the conference and 15th nationally. He’s not too shabby on the defensive glass either, ranking in the top 250 in that category.
Matchups to Watch
West Virginia has the fifth-best offensive efficiency during Big 12 play, and that’s not because it’s a good shooting team. The Mountaineers are top in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage (35.3%) and free-throw rate (44.4%), and that increase in shots and free points at the line helps to make up for the fact that WVU shoots 47.3% from two (last in the Big 12) and 33.1% from three (sixth).
West Virginia’s efficiency is not much better on the defensive end, as it is seventh in opponent two-point percentage, sixth in opponent three-point percentage, and ninth in opponent effective field-goal percentage. But the Mountaineers do a good job keeping teams off the offensive glass.
In the first matchup, WVU grabbed 12 offensive rebounds (but the 27% was below its average) and the Mountaineers got to the line 28 times, nine more than Kansas. But West Virginia only shot 43% from two and hit four of 20 threes. Meanwhile, KU grabbed 11 of its own offensive boards (32%) but those extra chances didn’t do much inside the paint. Kansas was just 13-33, but where it shined was from beyond the arc. The Jayhawks hit 11 of 24 threes, including Dajuan Harris going 3-6 and Gradey Dick hitting four of six.
Prediction
Adam Sullivan had the insane stat on Twitter that Kansas is 38-0 under Bill Self in the last two games of the season at Allen Fieldhouse. Given that this is the second-to-last game in Allen this year, history would already tell us this is in Kansas’ favor. Then factor in WVU’s inability to win on the road and KU fighting for a Big 12 title and I think you know where I’m going with this.
From a pure on-court perspective, I don’t expect Kansas to shoot as well from three as it did, but I also don’t expect the Jayhawks to shoot less than 40% from inside the arc. KU is shooting 51.1% from two in conference play, after all. But the biggest difference is I think Kansas is better equipped to handle a long, athletic rebounding team than it was on January 7.
KenPom has Kansas favored by seven, and I think that feels about right. Give me Kansas to cover that and head into the last week of the regular season in great position in the Big 12 race.
Kansas 77, West Virginia 67
Prediction record
15-11-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 73-68 KU | Actual: 63-58 KU
