15 Days To Kansas Football: Effects of Big Ten Media Deal
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I was definitely not expecting to write again about the media deals for conferences that are not the Big 12 as part of the countdown, but we've been reminded once again that this is a normal offseason for college football.
First, the Big 12 continued the trend of non-traditional conference commissioner hires by tabbing Brett Yormark to be the next face of the conference. Then, realignment got started again with the announcement that UCLA and USC were off to the Big Ten. From there, the Pac-12 went into full-on damage control mode, with multiple articles by national media members touting the strength of a league that was clearly wounded and struggling to figure out their next move.
And while we knew that announcement of the Big Ten media deal was going to make additional steps in the realignment saga possible, I don't think people were quite prepared for just how massive this deal was going to be.
It's an incredible amount for a league that many considered to be a clear number two behind the SEC as recently as June. But instead, the Big Ten appears to be the top dog in the conference hierarchy, both in the breadth of their upcoming exposure and the amount that each team will be getting from their media deals.
But the effects of this deal go well beyond the battle between the Big Ten and SEC for supremacy in the college football landscape. So let's dive into some of the big impacts that could be felt shortly from this deal.
Big Ten Expansion is probably not done
The deal itself was big enough, both in the amount of money and the scope of the media partners involved. But something that was noted but not focused on widely was the escalators in the contract that would increase the value of the contract if the Big Ten expands further.
The one unknown here is what the conditions are for those escalators. Do they require specific expansion targets, including Notre Dame? Or could they get that additional value solely by adding other Pac 12 schools, such as Oregon and Washington?
With so many unknowns, including the specific targets and number of targets, the timing of any potential expansion and much more, what does this mean for the remaining Pac 12 teams as they look to negotiate their own media deal.
And if the Big Ten expands further, how much longer would the SEC wait to expand further? Would there be some movement to try and pry away additional teams? While the Big 12 appears to be the most stable third conference at least partially due to a lack of interest in their remaining teams as targets for further expansion, does that calculus change if the SEC feels like they need to match the Big Ten to some degree?
Who is still looking for inventory?
In our discussion of the news that ESPN pulled out of negotiations for the Big Ten media rights, I mentioned that the move would lead to an increased need for ESPN to find a large amount of inventory for ESPN+ and some of their midday weekend slots. And typically, you could expect that to help drive up the price for the Big 12 media rights.
But part of that optimism was based on the report that NBC was looking for a league partner to help expand their college football coverage to pair with the Notre Dame contract. They found that with the Big Ten, taking a number of games for the Saturday primetime slot and also getting some limited inventory for the Peacock streaming service.
What now remains to be seen is if NBC wants to have more streaming inventory, or if they are satisfied with what they got from the Big Ten. CBS is replacing their 3:30pm Eastern slot on Saturdays that are currently occupied by the SEC with some marquee matchups from the Big Ten. It's unclear if they would look to add additional games, but the early indications are that it isn't a priority for them.
All this is to say that despite the increased need for ESPN to fill out their streaming service and cable slots, there may not be many other bidders for either the Big 12 or Pac 12. And that could be a problem for both leagues.
Did the Big Ten reset the market, or eat up the available cash?
The most difficult question is also probably the most important one: How much money is there for broadcasting rights? The answer to that question will probably do more to determine the next steps for the other conferences than anything else.
There are really only two options. Either this deal shows that there is a LOT more money available for college sports broadcasting than anything imagined in the last year or two, or the Big Ten just ate up an enormous percentage of what is available.
If the conventional wisdom that sports and news are the only two things that can truly bring value to live television, then there is a good chance that there will be plenty of money left for the Big 12 and whatever form the Pac 12 takes when the dust settles.
But if the reality is that these massive deals ate up most of the available money, then no matter how much inventory the networks want to fill, it's going to be difficult for anyone to get enough to keep up with the two conferences at the top.
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