28 Days to Kansas Football: Source of Realignment Chatter Tells All

Even though there is a lack of concrete information about any further realignment moves, that hasn't stopped people from continuing to report on it. But the source of that chatter actually tells us more than what is being said.

I really debated whether I should write this article, since I made it clear in the last article on realignment that I didn't want to keep returning to the topic when nothing was actually happening. But before I swear off the topic for the rest of the preseason, I wanted to come back to it because it still has been a massive topic of conversation.

Your first thought might be that of course random fans on Twitter are going to keep talking about it. It's fascinating to speculate and debate what the real "best" moves are when there isn't a clear cut answer. And if the conversations were limited to random Twitter accounts or message board rumors, then this wouldn't be a story at all.

Instead, the vast majority of the speculation is being fed by two writers who cover the Pac 12 and have been part of what seems to be a coordinated media push to promote a conference that is on the brink of a real crisis. But while Stewart Mandel seems to have moved on after his article containing the TV viewer numbers comparisons that have been debunked quite convincingly since, John Canzano and Jon Wilner are still beating the drum of the supposed Pac 12 supremacy.

Don't get me wrong, talking about realignment is a good way to drive pageviews, as everyone is looking for more information that might give them a hint about what is going to happen. But there are a few reasons that most of the talk about the Big 12 poaching teams from the Pac 12 is coming from anonymous Pac 12 athletic directors. 

Changing the Narrative

 The most obvious reason for the continued focus on discounting the Big 12 as a destination for Pac 12 schools is that there is real worry among the people most invested in the survival of the league. That was most evident in the comments from George Kliavkoff at Pac 12 Media Days. His repeated reference to the Big 12 and the false bravado about poaching some of those schools to join the conference was not unexpected, but it was surprising how many times that particular topic came up, even unprompted by reporter's questions.

And since then, the stories and misinformation have intensified. Since the release of the severely flawed TV viewers analysis, there have been multiple indirect references to this information as support for why the Pac 12 schools are more valuable than their Big 12 counterparts. Estimates of the value of a potential TV contract have been dismissed as invalid. Even though the exclusive negotiating window for the Pac 12 media rights has expired, some reporters would have you believe that school officials have not been made aware of an offer from ESPN. This is despite reports of just how low that offer really was.

To put it simply, the bits of information being reported are damaging for the Pac 12 if they are true. Understandably, the members of the conference that would benefit the most by it's continued survival are heavily invested in trying to drive the narrative towards their desired outcome. And luckily for them, they are probably the only ones that can actually talk right now.

Tampering Implications

Typically when you think of tampering, you are thinking of professional teams improperly talking with players of another team to try to induce them to leave. But as we found out last year when the Big 12 was dealing with their own departures, conferences have to be very careful when talking with potential new members.

Due to the nature of many of the contracts involved in conference membership, it can be problematic for a conference to actively recruit schools to join their conference. Legally, a case can be made for interfering with the media contracts of the league that team is leaving. While there is an open question about how liable the conference may be, no one wants to be the first test case.

This is why you always hear about schools applying to conferences before the conference officially votes to accept the application. It is also why reports on these moves always include a statement that the school approached the conference about potential membership. Conference by-laws and contracts have very specific language outlining the costs for a school to leave. 

Kliavkoff mentioned that he has "receipts" showing that Big 12 members have reached out to Pac 12 members to discuss potential moves. This is very similar to last season, when Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby indicated that he had evidence showing that ESPN was having active discussions with the American Athletic Conference about a plan to destabilize the conference and potential save Oklahoma and Texas millions in exit fees. After that story broke, it's fair to say that those that were accused were very careful to not do anything that could be perceived as attempting to destabilize the Big 12 any further.

Ultimately, the Big 12 can't afford to be proactive in setting the narrative, because doing so might be used against them at a later date. Thus, the Pac 12 schools that are worried about their eventual landing spot can freely frame the conversation.

These Things Take Time

Finally, as we saw with the departures of Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12 and USC and UCLA from the Pac 12, the actual planning process involved for leaving takes time. Each of those schools reportedly worked on their exits for at least a full year, and we only heard about them hours before the news broke.

Any current Pac 12 school that is looking to leave has a very big interest in keeping that information quiet. That means that while negotiations are happening, it is in their best interest to pretend like everything is fine and they are fully committed to the Pac 12.

To be clear, I am NOT saying that I think a move by any of the Pac 12 schools to the Big 12 is imminent. However, the insistence of several reporters that every school in the conference is fully committed to the survival of the conference comes across as nothing more than a talking point.

This will likely be the last article of the countdown on conference realignment, unless there is news that directly affects the Jayhawks. We will still cover anything that happens, but the rest of the countdown will be focused specifically on the Jayhawks and the upcoming season.

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