55 Days Until Kansas Football: Iowa State Preview
The college football world is becoming more expansive and less familiar. California squads are going to be competing for conference titles against teams in Minnesota, Maryland, and New Jersey.
But when Kansas and Iowa State meet on October 1 in Lawrence, it will be a familiar affair. The teams separated by 275 miles first played in 1916 and have played every year since 1931.
Let’s take a look at the 2022 version of this long-standing matchup.
Pre-Game Notes
This will be the 101st meeting between KU and ISU, with KU holding onto the all-time series lead at 49-45-6 with each having a seven-game winning streak at some point in their history (ISU’s is current and will look to stretch it to eight this year). But the most recent meeting was drastically one-sided in favor of the Cyclones. Iowa State won 59-7, setting a matchup record for most points scored by a team and the largest margin of victory.
Current Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell has never lost to the Jayhawks. Even more impressive, Iowa State has 29 conference wins since 2017 — just a year after he came to Ames — which is only behind Oklahoma in the Big 12. Campbell has compiled a 42-34 record at Iowa State, with a 3-9 first season being the only with a losing record.
Mike Plank Four-Down Scouting Report
First Down
Iowa State went bowling last year with a 7-6 record, which sounds like an amazing accomplishment if you’ve been a Kansas fan for the past decade, but it was a down year given expectations coming in. The Cyclones were ranked No. 7 in the preseason AP poll while returning 19 of 22 starters from a 9-3 team in 2020. But it could not close out tight contests, losing five games by single digits, including a Texas Tech defeat on a 62-yard field goal.
Second Down
The Cyclones have had a number of familiar faces the past few years that are gone in 2022. Brock Purdy and his 32 school records are no longer at quarterback, two-time All-American Breece Hall is gone from his mainstay in the Cyclones’ backfield, and Mike Rose is no longer patrolling the defense.
Sophomore Hunter Dekkers looks to have the lead in the QB race. He’s a familiar Iowa face as well, holding the Iowa high school records for most passing yards and touchdowns. Jirehl Brock started for Hall in the bowl game last year but it looks like it could be a committee in the backfield, at least to start. The most proven offensive weapon is likely receiver Xavier Hutchinson, who racked up 987 yards and five touchdowns on 83 passes last year.
Third Down
Receiver and offensive line are the two offensive areas with the most returning production, but even that is not saying much. The Cyclones only bring back 45% of their receiving yards and 44% of its o-line starts, but that’s still much better than passing yards (7%) and rushing yards (17%). It’s going to be an entirely new look in Ames.
Fourth Down
The transfer portal was not kind to Iowa State’s secondary as the Cyclones lost three key players to other schools. The player to watch on the defense is Will McDonald IV, who had 11.5 sacks last year (29 for his career) and only needs five to break the career Big 12 sack record.
Matchup On Paper
Iowa State had the fourth best offense in the Big 12 last year in terms of points per game (31.3) and it did so with a balanced offensive attack. Purdy led the conference in pass completions, completion percentage, and passing yards, while Hall was third in rush attempts (but only four carries out of first), second in rushing yards, and first in rushing touchdowns.
But the offense wasn’t a boom-or-bust big-play highlight reel. It was efficient and methodical. Purdy’s yards per attempt were sixth in the league and Hall’s rushing yards per attempt ranked eighth. With so much turnover in nearly every position, it will be interesting to see if 1.) this style helps Dekkers minimize mistakes and 2.) the Cyclones can maintain the types of efficiencies they had the past few years.
On the other side of the ball, the ISU defense was stout last year, only giving up 20.5 points per game. And while it still has returning players who can pressure the quarterback, The Athletic points out that ISU has zero returning production who recorded an interception last year.
Way-too-Early Trend Lines
There are so many unknown variables right now. But two forces from last year are working against each other in terms of predicting how this could go. On the one hand, Iowa State played in eight games last year where the final margin was 10 points or fewer. And it went 2-6 in those games.
But when it won big, it was big. The Cyclones also won games by margins of 52, 45, 34, and 23 points. And when it comes to games against Kansas, the Jayhawks haven’t kept the final margin to single digits since 2016 and only once since then was the margin within 24.
It’s a new era for the Cyclones without Purdy, Hall, and company. Kansas fans are hoping it’s the beginning of a new era in Lawrence as well.
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