K-State vs Kansas Senior Day Preview
It’s senior day for the Kansas Jayhawks as the final game in David Booth Memorial Stadium for the season – and before the renovations start – will take place Saturday against rival Kansas State.
KSU has dominated the recent series, winning the last 14. Kansas will be looking for its first win over the Wildcats since 2008.
Opponent Overview
Team: Kansas State
Record: 7-3
Line: KSU -9.5
Team Form
K-State is coming off arguably its most dominant win (against an FBS opponent) of the season after whooping Baylor 59-25. It’s been a theme for the Wildcats this year where KSU has overmatched lesser opponents but also doesn’t have a signature win. All of K-State’s losses are good — Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas — but there’s also not a win against a ranked opponent in there.
KSU has beaten UCF, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, and Baylor in the conference. The last three wins have been by particularly impressive margins, but none of those teams are close to being ranked. The Wildcats did push Texas all the way to the wire in Austin, but fell in overtime.
Players to Watch
The Wildcats go as quarterback Will Howard goes. After Howard threw three interceptions in a loss to Oklahoma State (back when we weren’t sure how good this Cowboys team was), he only attempted nine passes in the next game against Texas Tech as he split time with freshman Avery Johnson. That appeared to be a wake-up call, as Howard has thrown 12 touchdown passes to just one interception since that point (before that Tech game, Howard had nine TDs to seven INTs).
Like Kansas, KSU is perfectly happy pounding the ball on the ground, and the Wildcats are successful at it. DJ Giddens is leading the team with 859 yards and seven TDs while averaging six yards per carry, while Treshaun Ward – a transfer from Florida State – has chipped in 532 yards and four TDs. Howard is also a dangerous threat to run, and he has scored an additional seven TDs on the ground this year. Phillip Brooks has been the go-to receiver so far, holding the team high in catches (49), yards (554), and receiving touchdowns (five). Tight end Ben Sinnott has been Howard’s second option, racking up 501 yards and four TDs in 10 games.
For the Kansas running attack to be successful, the KU line will have to take care of Austin Moore. The linebacker is sixth in the Big 12 in tackles for loss (10) while leading KSU in tackles and has forced two fumbles. Meanwhile, in the secondary, Jacob Parrish is the Wildcats’ leader in pass deflections (nine) and interceptions (three).
Matchups to Watch
Like Texas Tech a week ago, K-State will go to the run game early and often. The only time this season where the Wildcats didn’t rush it at least 30 times in a game was against Texas, and KSU ran it 29 times. On the flip side, K-State has run it 40+ times in five games, including 52 carries for 343 yards against TCU and 47 carries for 272 against the Red Raiders. It was clear and obvious what Texas Tech was going to do in the first half last week and the Jayhawks had no answer. Can KU contain the ground attack early and force Howard to throw more? That’s a big theme to watch.
On the positive end, K-State can be vulnerable in the run game as a defense. The Wildcats gave up 230 yards on the ground to Texas (6.2 yards per carry), 182 to Texas Tech (6.1 ypc), and 174 to OSU (4.4 ypc). The KSU defense is averaging giving up just 119 yards per game on the season, but if you look at just Big 12 play, that number jumps to 148.5 per game.
What also has been a theme for KU opponents this year is opposing defenses that excel in forcing turnovers. K-State has turned teams over 17 times in 10 games, including three against TTU and Texas and four last week against Baylor. In the Missouri and OSU losses, neither opponent turned it over while KSU had four turnovers. I don’t expect it to be that dramatic on Saturday, but Kansas limiting the turnovers in order to maximize offensive possessions will be key.
Prediction
It’s hard to get a great read on this one until we know the status of Jason Bean. As Michael Swain of 247Sports reported Thursday, Bean is progressing, but as of right now, there’s no certainty in his status.
Cole Ballard showed some toughness getting thrown into an incredibly difficult position last week, and he would likely perform better if necessary having more time to prepare, but it’s a tall order to beat a ranked rival with a third-string, true-freshman quarterback. And unfortunately for KU, Bean wasn’t the only injury last week. Luke Grimm took a massive shot and his status is also unknown, while Mason Fairchild also suffered an injury.
What KU has going for it is the emotion around Senior Day and beloved players like Kenny Logan, Fairchild, and Rich Miller playing in The Booth one final time. And the Jayhawks have bounced back well from defeats. The Texas loss follow-up was a 51-22 beatdown of UCF, while a bad performance in Stillwater was made right by an upset of No. 6 Oklahoma.
Regardless of the winner, I don’t think this will be a situation where a team wins by 20+ like has been the case the past two years. These two teams feel like they are fairly equal in terms of talent level, so I like Kansas to cover the 9.5. If Jason Bean plays – and I’m just going to assume he’s going to give it a go unless news of the contrary comes out prior to this publishing (if you’re reading this sentence, it hasn’t) – then I’m giving KU the slightest of edges due to the home field and final hurrah of Logan and company to get a win and snap the streak.
Kansas 31, K-State 28
Record ATS: 5-5
Record Straight Up: 7-3
(Last week: Texas Tech 16, Kansas 13)
