Kansas at Cincinnati Football Preview
The regular season is coming to a close, and before the Kansas Jayhawks find out what bowl game they will play in, they have one last Big 12 game to attend to. And it will be a first as KU travels to Cincinnati as a conference foe. The only time the Jayhawks played at Cinci was in 1997.
Opponent Overview
Team: Cincinnati
Record: 3-8
Line: KU -7
Team Form
It hasn’t been the smoothest transition both from the Luke Fickell era and the jump to the Big 12. The Bearcats have been one of the best programs not in the power five the past few years, but this year was a step back.
The season started out well, with Cincinnati winning its first two games, including a road game at Pitt. But it has gone downhill since then. Cinci lost seven games in a row before winning at Houston two weeks ago. And playing at home hasn’t been much help as the Bearcats are just 1-5 at home, and that win was against non-FBS Eastern Kentucky. In its last game, Cincinnati fell 42-21 at West Virginia.
Players to Watch
Quarterback Emory Jones is in his sixth year of college football, having spent four years at Florida and last year at Arizona State. Jones is completing just 61.7% of his passes, which is the lowest mark of his career when attempting more than 100 passes. He’s thrown for 2,115 yards and 17 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, but Jones is also a threat to run, gaining 499 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
The rushing attack is Cincinnati’s strength, led by Corey Kiner, who is nearing the 1,000 mark with 941 yards and five touchdowns. Through the air, Jones has two main targets. Xzavier Henderson leads the team with 54 receptions and 752 yards, while Braden Smith has 40 catches for 542 yards. But when it comes to reaching the end zone, Jones has found Chamon Metayer more than anyone, connecting for five touchdowns.
Deshawn Pace is the Bearcats’ leading tackler with 76, and his 11 tackles for loss is eighth in the Big 12. Up front, Dontay Corleone is the big name (and a great one) with 5.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. His d-line counterpart Daniel Grzesiak is even better this year at 6.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Matchups to Watch
Who is going to stop the run? Cincinnati has eclipsed 200 yards rushing and has rushed it more than 40 times in eight of its 11 games. But the Bearcats’ run defense has been susceptible in Big 12 play. In the last four games, Cincinnati has given up:
- 315 yards (8.5 yards per rush) and four TDs to Oklahoma State
- 228 yards (5.8 yards per rush) and four TDs to UCF
- 139 yards (six yards per rush) and zero TDs to Houston
- 424 yards (9.2 yards per rush) and five TDs to West Virginia
If Kansas can get Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw going early, it’s going to make life much easier on either Cole Ballard or Jason Bean. Similarly, KU has the opportunity to make life difficult for Jones. Cincinnati has only thrown for more than 200 yards once in the past six games. Part of that is because the Bearcats are so committed to the run that they don’t pass much. The Jayhawks could force Jones to pass it by jumping out to an early lead.
Prediction
Kansas has now lost back-to-back games in which it was right in it and couldn’t finish the job. Against K-State, the Jayhawks were the better team but made too many costly mistakes. I would think ball security and special teams execution have been major focal points over the last seven days.
While the Kansas defense has gotten off to slower starts, the Jayhawks have stepped up and allowed its offense — with a third-string, true freshman quarterback — to have a chance. If KU can control the Cincinnati run game and get out to an early lead, I think the Jayhawks will be fine.
Questions were asked of what there was to play for now that KU is out of the Big 12 championship race and likely has its bowl game locked up. Leipold mentioned pride, and I do think this team is hungry to end the regular season on a positive note and show how good it can be.
I picked Kansas to go 8-4 in the regular season back in August and there’s no reason to divert from that now. I think KU wins and covers on the road.
Kansas 42, Cincinnati 28
Record ATS: 6-5
Record Straight Up: 7-4
(Last week: K-State 31, Kansas 27)
