Kansas at Iowa State Preview: Which Defense Shows Up?
The Kansas Jayhawks now have their signature win to go along with their 6-2 record after knocking off the previously undefeated Oklahoma Sooners last week in Lawrence. Now, KU will look to maintain its momentum in a tough road environment under the lights in Ames against an Iowa State team that looks to be finding its form.
Opponent Overview
Team: Iowa State
Record: 5-3
Line: ISU -2.5
Team Form
The Cyclones were picked 10th in the Big 12 preseason poll, and that was before starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers was caught in an underage gambling investigation. It was an expected start to the season as ISU lost to Iowa and Ohio after beating FCS team Northern Iowa. But in conference play, Iowa State is 5-1, with the lone loss being to Oklahoma, although it was a 50-20 beatdown.
ISU is on a three-game winning streak with victories over TCU, Cincinnati, and Baylor. Though, all three of those teams currently have a losing record in Big 12 play. The schedule gets much more difficult after the KU game, as the Cyclones end with BYU, Texas, and K-State.
Players to Watch
With Dekkers not playing this year, the starting quarterback spot fell to redshirt freshman Rocco Becht, who has been more than serviceable. Becht is fifth in the Big 12 in passing yards (1,702), completions (142), and attempts (236), seventh in completion percentage (60.2%), and fourth in passing touchdowns (13). The downside of the young player is that his six interceptions are fourth most in the conference.
Becht has identified two go-to receivers that serve different roles. Jaylin Noel’s 42 receptions are 14 more than the next receiver, though he’s averaging just 9.1 yards per catch. Meanwhile, Jayden Higgins leads the team in yards (512) on 28 catches and a team-high four touchdowns. Like a season ago, it’s a committee in the backfield for ISU. Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton each have 70+ carries on the season (though Sanders’ has been in just six games) and two touchdowns, while Abu Sama has 41 carries and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
The Cyclones share a similarity with Oklahoma in that its defense has excelled at forcing turnovers. Iowa State has 13 interceptions in eight games, led by sophomore Jeremiah Cooper, who has five picks and six pass deflections. Beau Freyler also has three interceptions and leads the team in tackles with 57.
Matchups to Watch
The running attacks are going to be interesting to watch in this matchup. In its last four games, Iowa State has rushed for 150 or more yards three times, with the low being 123 yards against Cincinnati. And the Cyclones’ defense has given up at least 100 yards on the ground in every game this year outside of Baylor last week, when the Bears ran it just 25 times.
Iowa State’s success has been predicated on making life easy on its quarterback and tough on the opposing quarterback. Becht hasn’t had to do too much in the majority of the games, while opposing QBs have only completed greater than 60% of their passes once (Dillon Gabriel of OU). Now, the Cyclones have gotten a bit lucky with the schedule and QBs it has faced so far this year. Just take a look at ISU’s opponents’ offensive ranking in points per game and quarterback(s) for the game.
- Northern Iowa – 24 ppg
- Iowa – 120th in offense | Cade McNamara
- Ohio – 107th in offense | Kurtis Rourke
- Oklahoma State – 47th in offense | Alan Bowman
- Oklahoma – 4th in offense | Dillon Gabriel
- TCU – 61st in offense (before its Thursday game) | Josh Hoover/Chandler Morris
- Cincinnati – 82nd in offense | Emory Jones
- Baylor – 101st in offense | Blake Shapen
You can only play the teams on your schedule, and ISU is not responsible for TCU, Baylor, and the like underperforming. But Kansas is easily the second best offense in terms of points per game (18th nationally) that Iowa State has faced this year.
And it was touched on earlier but Iowa State’s success also stems from only turning it over seven times and turning teams over 15 times. Turning teams over twice as often as you give the ball up gives you quite the advantage. Kansas is much closer to a 1:1 ratio, turning it over 10 times and forcing 12.
Prediction
A talking point the entire season has been that the Kansas defense has not performed nearly as well on the road as it has at home. Can the Jayhawks build on the fire and aggression from the OU game and bring it to Ames? It’s certain to be a tough, rowdy environment at Jack Trice Stadium and Jason Bean and company need more from the defense than they got in Stillwater.
Iowa State is one of five teams that are a game in front of KU in the Big 12 standings. The other four? They play each other Saturday (OU-OSU and KSU-Texas). Which means that if Kansas can come away with a victory in Ames, it will be even more in the hunt for a Big 12 Championship Game appearance.
The KU run defense makes me nervous, and there’s a not-unlikely scenario where we see a natural letdown in enthusiasm after such an emotional win last week. But I’m going the other way and saying Kansas is fueled even more by the win and return to the top-25 rankings. It feels like Iowa State needs to keep this game in the 20s to win. I think it will be close and competitive but the Jayhawks score enough to find a way and move to 7-2.
Kansas 31, Iowa State 27
Record ATS: 4-4
Record Straight Up: 6-2
(Last week: Kansas 38, Oklahoma 33)
