Kansas vs. Duke Football Preview: Can the Jayhawks Keep Rolling Against the Unproven Blue Devils?
It’s late September and Kansas is returning home to Lawrence with a 3-0 record and as the clear favorites against another undefeated power five team.
The Jayhawks will host Iowa State for homecoming next week, but first need to keep the momentum going against Duke.
Opponent Overview
Team: Duke
Record: 3-0
Line: KU -7.5 (opened KU -8.5)
Odds provided by SI Sportsbook
Team Form
Like Kansas, Duke has failed to suffer a loss so far through three weeks. But it is still uncertain just how good this Blue Devils team is. Duke has beaten Temple (30-0), Northwestern (31-23), and NC A&T (49-20), but those teams have a combined record of 2-7. And of those two wins by Duke opponents, one was by Northwestern defeating a Nebraska team in week zero that has since fired its coach and the other was Temple beating 1-2 Lafayette of the Patriot League.
So, yeah. Duke is winning games and its offense has looked strong so far, but it’s hard to tell how much of that is the competition. The Blue Devils are also led by a first-year head coach in Mike Elko and have quite a few different pieces from the team Kansas faced in Durham last year.
Players to Watch
Competition aside, sophomore quarterback Riley Leonard is off to a hot start. He’s completing nearly 73% of his passes and has racked up 723 yards and five touchdowns, though he has thrown two picks. And while he’s not Jalon Daniels on the ground, he is a threat, averaging six yards per carry on 22 attempts and finding the end zone twice on the ground.
From a skill position perspective, Duke has a committee of players that can beat you. Running backs Jaylen Coleman and Jordan Waters, along with Leonard, are all basically even in terms of carries and yards so far this year. And the Blue Devils have four receivers (Jordan Moore, Jalon Calhoun, Eli Pancol, and Shamir Hagans) who have eclipsed more than 100 yards receiving so far this year.
Matchups to Watch
One of the biggest questions of this game is if Kansas can prove to be a tougher defensive unit than Duke’s offense has seen so far this year. The Blue Devils are averaging 7.8 yards per play, but again, it’s difficult to know if that is because it’s really that strong or level of competition plays a factor. This is a balanced offense that is averaging 255 yards through the air and 205 on the ground while gaining 10 first downs a game through both passes and runs.
The other thing Duke has done well is take care of the ball. Leonard only has two interceptions and the team hasn’t lost a fumble yet. On the other side of the ball, Duke has forced and recovered a handful of fumbles on defense, but only has one interception on the year so far. Duke has won the turnover battle in each of its three games and Kansas has failed to turn it over in its last two. Whoever can do that Saturday has a good chance to win.
Prediction
It hasn’t been said often the last decade, but Kansas’ home crowd could be a factor. Officials are expecting one of its best turnouts in years as the program tries to #PackTheBooth, and the only road environment Duke has played in so far was at Northwestern with 24,600 fans (52% of the stadium) in attendance.
The seven-point spread feels about right considering we don’t really know how good this Duke team is, although like Kansas, it looks to be exceeding expectations early. I picked the Jayhawks against West Virginia and Houston on the road, which feel like harder matchups, so I don’t know why I would stop now. I’m rolling with KU starting 4-0 heading into homecoming against Iowa State.
Kansas 42, Duke 31
