Wednesday Walkthrough: Cincinnati Week
The final week of the regular season is here for the Kansas Jayhawks, and even in the wake of last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Kansas State Wildcats it’s important to note that there’s still a ton for KU to accomplish this year.
The Jayhawks haven’t finished with eight regular-season wins since 2007 and they haven’t earned nine or more wins a year overall since that same campaign. They can reach one of those benchmarks and get a step closer to the other with a win this Saturday night in Ohio.
KU coach Lance Leipold had plenty to say ahead of this weekend’s tilt with the Cincinnati Bearcats, so let’s examine his quotes and size up what awaits at Nippert Stadium.
LISTENING IN ON LANCE
"Why would you put all this work in and not finish strong? ... Winning eight games will be a nice achievement. I'm not sure how the bowl layout will go but obviously I think the more wins (and) opportunities can change."
This opening quote from Leipold, in response to how you motivate your team after a difficult loss like the one to K-State, really hammers home the point we made above. This has already been a strong season for the program, but with the right effort and production in the final two weeks it can be a great season. Frankly, given what we know about this staff and this roster, there’s no reason to think they won’t be ready for Saturday night.
“Last week was probably our most difficult week of prep as far as able bodies, and I think we still played extremely hard and well. We haven't been, other than quarterback, hit at one position...we've got some guys that are fighting through it and we'll see what the next couple days bring.”
Leipold said that KU is likely in a similar spot relative to most of the country in terms of the number of injuries piling up at this time of year, but there are some key players who are banged up for the Jayhawks entering the Cincinnati game. That includes the likes of Kenny Logan, Mello Dotson and Bryce Cabeldue among others, all of whom missed the first practice of the week. This isn’t a unique problem for Kansas, but those are players that it needs to have on the field to have its best chance of winning this weekend.
“They're a lot better than what their record shows...They've got an athletic quarterback, they get out on the perimeter on nakeds and boots and he can run the ball in other ways. Physical runner. Probably consistency and probably adjusting to some things in our league (...) it's going to be their senior day and you're going to see a team that's ready to play."
We’ll get to more of the specifics in a moment, but it’s been a rough year for the Bearcats. That pertains to quarterback Emory Jones in a more specific sense, too, but his athleticism is definitely his most stand-out trait. After the success in clutch situations that Will Howard found against the KU defense last week, that’s definitely something Brian Borland’s defense will have to be ready for this weekend.
"Pretty gritty performance by him in those circumstances. You could see him get more comfortable. First interception, I'm sure he wants that back, the timing of it and unfortunately it's on-the-job training, it's a learning experience. But never once did he have that look in his eye that this moment was too big for him."
We don’t know who KU’s starting quarterback will be yet this week, but it’s fair to assume that after the performance Cole Ballard had against Kansas State there’s even more confidence in his ability going forward. He wasn’t perfect, but he also certainly wasn’t the reason the Jayhawks lost. Jason Bean is likely everyone’s preferred option to start this week, but you know that Kansas can win if Ballard gets the call instead.
KNOW YOUR ENEMY
When: Saturday, Nov. 25 at 6:30 p.m. CT
Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Spread: Kansas -6.5
Cincinnati's first year in the Big 12 and first year under coach Scott Satterfield has been anything but pleasant for the program. The Bearcats are dead last in the Big 12 standings, they're 11th in the conference in both scoring offense and defense, and their only home win of the season came against an FCS opponent. The advanced metrics also aren’t Cincinnati fans this season, with Satterfield’s bunch checking in as the third-worst Big 12 team in Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric at ESPN this week.
Jones is completing just under 62% of his passes this season for 2,115 yards, 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. That's the second-most interceptions of any qualified passer in the Big 12 this season, only ahead of Houston's Donovan Smith. As far as weapons, Corey Kiner is the Bearcats' leading rusher this season with 941 yards and five touchdowns, while Xzavier Henderson paces Cincinnati's receiver corps with 54 receptions and 752 yards. Both of Henderson's marks rank sixth in the Big 12 this year.
Kansas has been favored from the jump in this matchup, and according to Vegas Insider the line has even moved by a half a point further in the Jayhawks’ direction since it opened. Cincinnati is just 3-7 against the spread in FBS competition this year, though two of those covers have come in the last three weeks. For comparison's sake, KU has covered in six of its 10 games against FBS foes.
JAYHAWKS TO WATCH
We’ve touched on Jones’ running ability for Cincinnati (he’s their second-leading rusher this season), and in its one Big 12 win this season Kiner made a big impact with explosive plays, specifically a 62-yard jaunt that led to a touchdown. Thus, limiting big plays and ground-based success will be key for the Kansas defense.
That’s why we’re looking to the linebacker corps this week to make a major impact for the Jayhawks. Craig Young’s athleticism will likely play a major role in slowing down the Bearcats’ run game, but it would also be encouraging for Rich Miller to make a few positive plays going downhill after his third-quarter miscue was a key turning point last weekend.
KU’s defense has played quite well in recent weeks and it will play one of the league’s worst offenses this Saturday. As long as that unit can limit explosive plays and drive-preserving mistakes, we should expect another solid week on that side of the ball.
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