Wednesday Walkthrough: Iowa State Week
The Kansas Jayhawks are still flying high after their historic win over the Oklahoma Sooners last Saturday, riding that wave of positivity all the way to the program’s first-ever College Football Playoff top-25 ranking this week.
Celebrations can only go on for so long before a program has to keep trudging forward, though, and that’s what the Jayhawks have to do now as they get ready for an important tilt with the Iowa State Cyclones. After a slow start to the year, Iowa State has found itself in a groove with three consecutive wins in Big 12 play.
The Cyclones are a dangerous team at home, something KU coach Lance Leipold is keenly aware of. Let’s dive into Leipold’s key quotes from his weekly press conference, plus other important information to know for Saturday’s matchup.
LISTENING IN ON LANCE
“Big win, they earned it, but our ability to play well after big wins, you know we need to play better, I think, after some of these wins...Opportunities for a lot of things are in front of us down the stretch here."
Following the win on Saturday, Leipold was in as celebratory of a mood as he’s ever been since arriving in Lawrence. He said he didn’t want to downplay how the win felt, even though he’s usually focused on constantly improving and moving forward. Monday morning is when that switch was flipped back on, but that’s probably for the best for this program. The Jayhawks didn’t get to this point by resting on their laurels and being satisfied, and that shouldn’t suddenly change now. It also needs to remain that way with a tough challenge this coming weekend in Ames.
“Matt's done a great job, always has. Last year probably didn't go as well as they'd like … You see this group of young players, they're well-coached, they're fundamentally sound, they execute well, they play within their system and he's got them playing really well and with a lot of confidence right now."
Leipold has always been quite complimentary of Iowa State coach Matt Campbell and the way he’s built the Cyclones into what they are today, going as far as to say he wants to emulate some of what they’ve done in his own program at KU. And he’s right about the job Campbell has done this year with a young team, especially in the face of a slow start and the gambling scandal that highlighted ISU’s offseason.
“We want to start fast everywhere, especially if you can on the road and take the crowd out of it. We're going to play on grass, we haven't done that a lot, we've got to get used to those things. If you make it a big deal, you have to prepare but don't make it too big of a thing. A lot of things to do, and getting off to a good start there will be important."
KU has struggled against high-level competition on the road since the early part of last season, and a big reason why is slow starts. Even in the Jayhawks’ last three road wins (West Virginia and Houston last year, Nevada this year), those games didn’t start off perfectly by any means. Leipold emphasized that a good start is important, but downplayed it being uniquely vital for a road game, especially in the midst of the various other factors that play into the matchup with Iowa State.
“When Jalon Daniels is healthy, Jalon is the starting quarterback."
Pretty simple stuff here regarding QB1. No one should take this as a personal slight toward Jason Bean, who Leipold heaped praise on following the Oklahoma game, but there’s no argument who will start under center once health is no longer a factor. Now, the downside of this part of this week’s press conference is the continued frustration with Daniels’ health, with Leipold saying that right now KU isn’t at a place where it can talk about the preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year returning to his starting job. He’ll eventually get there, but at least at the start of the week that return wasn’t imminent.
KNOW YOUR ENEMY
When: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 6:00 p.m. CT
Where: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
Spread: Kansas +1.5
Through its first four games against FBS competition this year, Iowa State was averaging just 18.5 points per game while allowing 26.8 per game. The Cyclones have been downright dominant since, though, winning each game of their current streak by 12 points or more. Bill Connelly's SP+ metric at ESPN views Kansas and Iowa State similarly so far this season; Iowa State is ranked 37th overall with an elite defense and mediocre offense, while Kansas is 38th overall with an elite offense and mediocre defense.
Freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has been pressed into service after last year’s starter, Hunter Dekkers, was wrapped up in the aforementioned gambling scandal, and the young passer has steadily improved as the season has progressed. He's fifth in the Big 12 in passing yards with 1,702 and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns with 13. The Cyclones have struggled to run the ball this year, ranking 11th in the conference in both rushing yards (983) and yards per carry (3.9). Stats Perform's TRACR metric, which is a measure of efficiency, ranks ISU's rushing attack 97th in the country out of 133 teams and third-worst among Big 12 programs.
Kansas actually started the week favored by some sportsbooks before jumping the fence Sunday night, with Iowa State now favored across the board. KU is 4-4 against the spread this year while ISU is 5-3, including covers in three straight games. It’s also important to note that the Cyclones are 18-13 in home night games since 2010, including 8 wins in their last 10 such games.
JAYHAWK TO WATCH
Generally, we prefer to pick a specific player here and we try to avoid repeat selections as much as possible. Neither of those things will happen this week. KU's offensive line has been fantastic this season, including last Saturday in the win over Oklahoma. It will have another tough task on hand this week against Iowa State.
Explosive plays are obviously a major component of KU’s offensive success, but so is consistent success on early downs to make third-down attempts that much easier (especially vital with Bean at quarterback). ISU’s defense can complicate that, though, because the Cyclones are 23rd in the country in defensive EPA/play on early downs, according to cfb-graphs.com.
This Jayhawks offensive line group has to be strong and consistent at the point of attack for a full 60 minutes. If they can clear lanes and get a push for the likes of Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw on first and second down, Kansas has a chance to have an impressive offensive night. If not, it’s going to add extra stress to Bean and the passing game. KU needs to stay ahead of the sticks, which means the offensive line needs to be at its best.
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