Wednesday Walkthrough: Kansas State Week
One of the most anticipated games of the season is finally upon us, and it’s anything but a normal game week for the Kansas Jayhawks as they prepare for this year’s Sunflower Showdown against the Kansas State Wildcats. With Colle Ballard preparing to start at quarterback in front of the injured Jason Bean, the Jayhawks need to be at their best across the entire roster if they want to snap their long losing skid to the Wildcats.
KU coach Lance Leipold previewed the matchup and talked about the importance of this year’s senior day earlier this week. Let’s listen in to what he had to say about this matchup against a team that he has lauded consistently during his tenure.
LISTENING IN ON LANCE
“I try not to get too sentimental because it's tough, you let your emotions get a hold of you too much and it distracts from them hopefully having their best opportunity to play their best football in their last home game … Each person has their own story of how they got here, how long they've been here, what they've added to this program as far as their attitude, their effort, their belief, their help changing of the culture, their work ethic and, of course, production on the field."
Saturday is senior day for KU, and regardless of how the game goes it will be a final chance for the home crowd to say “thank you” and “good bye” to a class that has meant so much to their program. And Leipold is right, that every member of the outgoing class has a story, whether they’ve been with Kansas from the start, whether they bought what this new regime was selling when they arrived as a transfer or even if they came with Leipold and co. from Buffalo. But whatever the background is for any individual, there’s no denying that this group has ushered in a lasting, hopefully permanent, new culture for KU football.
“I think there's parallels in our staff based on the makeup of the staffs, how they've gone about it, how Chris has done it in his career, and he's been able to retain a lot of people as well. When you do that, you're able to continue to grow and do those things."
We’re going to split this long response into two sections. Leipold was initially asked about what it’s been like working with his coordinators, Andy Kotelnicki and Brian Borland, as long as he has, followed by a question about what stands out about K-State. He drew parallels between his staff and the one in Manhattan, from the way Chris Klieman has moved up the ranks to where he is now and how much staff continuity both regimes have had.
"They've got experience and high production at quarterback. You can see, which is also a sign of good culture and development, is you're seeing a lot of their younger, true freshmen play a lot and be productive for them as well."
As for the product on the field, Leipold pointed to the contributions of both K-State’s more experienced players, like quarterback Will Howard, and its younger, less proven players. He also added that compared to last season, when KU got off to a terrible start in the game in Manhattan, he thinks if the Jayhawks can “weather the storm” better this time around it should be a more competitive start to the game.
“For us to play them, and they're the defending conference champs and we're coming into it with similar records, it's a home game, all those things, I think we should play loose in this game. We're just going to keep working on closing that gap and working to see where it's going to turn out on Saturday."
Leipold was asked about the gravity of this matchup in particular, against a rival that no one on the roster has ever beaten, and how to manage the nerves and to not let this game be bigger than it is. His answer is certainly fair and is the way KU has handled its business under this coaching staff, but it’s going to be especially important to stick to that this week. There is a lot riding on this game even beyond in-state bragging rights. The looser the Jayhawks play (not talking about ball security here), the likelier chance they’ll be in it until the end if not the victors when it ends.
KNOW YOUR ENEMY
When: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 6:00 p.m. CT
Where: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
Spread: Kansas +8.5
It’s been an up-and-down year for Howard, who has led K-State to plenty of wins in 2023 and even set a new program record last week, but his inconsistency with turnovers has also elicited plenty of calls for his freshman protégé, Avery Johnson, to get more game action. Howard Howard has thrown for 2,190 yards, 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions this year, while Johnson has been predominantly a running threat when he's seen playing time. Junction City native D.J. Giddens and Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward have been a solid replacement tandem for former Wildcats All-American Deuce Vaughn, who, of course, is now in the NFL. Giddens leads K-State with 143 carries for 859 yards and seven scores on the ground this season.
While K-State has three losses this season and is facing an uphill climb in its quest to return to the Big 12 Championship Game, the Wildcats are an analytical darling this season. They’re the highest-ranked three-loss team in Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric at ESPN, ranking No. 11 in the country. They own the same national ranking according to Stats Perform’s TRACR metric. For reference, KU is ranked 39th and 40th by those metrics, respectively.
The spread for this game has grown bigger in Kansas State’s favor since the line opened, likely because of how much likelier it is that Ballard will start at quarterback for the Jayhawks. According to Patrick Everson of Vegas Insider, though, KU is a "trendy" underdog pick this week, taking around 85% of money line wagers.
JAYHAWK TO WATCH
The obvious answer here is whoever starts at quarterback for the Jayhawks, likely Cole Ballard. What can he do with a week of preparation and as “the guy” for the first time? (We talked a little bit about that in this week’s Film Room Favorites here at Blue Wings Rising). If Jason Bean does get cleared and makes the start, will he be able to play at full strength?
That brings us to our actual pick this week, in fact. Regardless of who’s under center, someone is going to have to make plays down the field for their quarterback. Lawrence Arnold has been KU’s best and most consistent wide receiver this year, entering the weekend with 33 receptions for 559 yards, both of which are team highs. He has come up with big plays all year long, and that clutch ability will be massive this week, especially against a secondary that has allowed a bevy of explosive plays over the course of the season.
This will be an all-hands-on-deck game, with everyone needing to step up and play their best in order to pull off the upset. And it goes without saying that your best player, Devin Neal, will need to be featured heavily. But if you’re going to look for anyone in the passing attack to play a true game-changing role, Arnold is a safe bet.
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