Oklahoma at Kansas Preview: A Big Homecoming Matchup for KU
The Kansas Jayhawks have had two weeks to get healthy and prepare for the current best team in the Big 12. Now, after a bye week, Kansas hosts Oklahoma on Homecoming with Fox’s Big Noon Saturday crew in attendance.
The Booth will be sold out again for an 11 a.m. kick and the Jayhawks are bowl eligible again for the second consecutive year. Can Kansas secure the win?
Opponent Overview
Team: Oklahoma
Record: 7-0
Line: OU -9
Team Form
The Sooners are the only remaining undefeated team in the conference and ranked No. 6 nationally. But that doesn’t mean OU hasn’t been tested in Big 12 play. Oklahoma opened the conference slate with a 20-6 win over Cincinnati, demolished Iowa State 50-20, and then earned one of the signature wins of the year defeating Texas 34-30 in the Red River Rivalry. But UCF nearly caught OU off guard last week, with a failed two-point conversion the difference as the Sooners escaped 31-29.
Players to Watch
Oklahoma once again has one of the best offenses in the country and it starts with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel is completing 71 percent of his passes with a 19:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. What the Sooners don’t have are clear stars in the skill positions. Eric Gray and Marvin Mims are gone and no one is currently on pace to be a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver.
The closest contestant midway through the season is receiver Andrel Anthony, who came from Michigan and has compiled 429 yards through seven games. But Gabriel’s go-to end zone weapon is Nic Anderson, who has eight touchdowns on 16 catches. In the ground game, it’s a two-pronged attack with Marcus Major and Tawee Walker. Though one of Gabriel’s threats is his ability to run, as he is tied for second on the team in rushes (53) and leads the team in rushing touchdowns (five).
On defense, you’ve likely heard of Danny Stutsman. He’s the linebacker who delivered the famous pre-game quote that Oklahoma only fears God but Texas fears Oklahoma. Well, he’s scary for opposing offenses. Stutsman’s 70 tackles and 12 tackles for loss are both second in the Big 12, and his tackles for loss are also good for ninth nationally. Meanwhile, Ethan Downs leads the Sooners in sacks on the year with 4.5.
Matchups to Watch
The biggest turnaround for OU from last year to this year has been the defense. After giving up 30 points and more than 450 yards of offense in 2022, this year’s Sooners defense has been stout, allowing just 16.1 ppg and nearly 360 yards.
However, Big 12 opponents have been able to move the ball on the Sooners. Oklahoma has given up 140 or more rushing yards and 200 passing yards in every conference game. And OU’s last three opponents have put up an average of 26 points against the Sooners. But the difference has been turnovers. OU has turned opponents over 15 times – 12 being interceptions – while only giving the ball away five times all year. That will win you football games. So can the Kansas offense get into the end zone and not play right into the OU defense’s game plan?
On the other side of the ball, the big test will be how the Kansas defense can contain Gabriel. The Jayhawks gave up a lot of easy looks in Stillwater to a quarterback not nearly as accurate. Now you have Gabriel, who not only rarely makes mistakes throwing it, but can also beat you with his legs.
Prediction
The advantage Kansas has going for it is the atmosphere. It’s homecoming, the Booth is sold out, and Fox is in the house putting Lawrence on a national stage. Andy and I have talked on the podcast about how Kansas — especially on defense — plays with so much more energy at home. Can the Jayhawks use the fanfare to its advantage and jump on OU early to give the crowd something to cheer for?
I’m confident in Kansas’ offense. With two weeks to develop a game plan and what should have been a wake-up call for the offensive line and running game against OSU, I think the Jayhawks can put up points at home. The question is can KU slow down this Oklahoma offense that is averaging 43.1 points per game (fourth most nationally)?
I could see this game playing out in a number of ways, none of which are shocking. But what I feel the most confident in is Kansas’ ability to keep it close at home. I would take the points – whether you can find it at KU +9, +9.5, or +10 – and think KU has a real shot to win this game. But the Jayhawk defense hasn’t shown me enough to let it all ride with Kansas. I’ll say that Oklahoma wins in a close, high-scoring game.
Oklahoma 38, Kansas 35
Record ATS: 3-4
Record Straight Up: 6-1
(Last week: Bye)
