Nick Mingione Confident Kentucky Will Still Host Regional Despite Quick SEC Tournament Exit
HOOVER, Ala. — Kentucky baseball squandered its final opportunity to bolster its résumé on Tuesday, as it lost 4-0 to Alabama and was eliminated from the SEC Tournament after just one game.
Teetering on being a "lock" to become an NCAA Tournament Regional host, the defeat may allow some doubt to sneak in, but head coach Nick Mingione remained adamant postgame that there should be no question that UK should be revealed as one of the 16 hosts on Sunday, May 28.
"I am, yes, very confident," the seventh-year skipper said when asked about his confidence in the Cats being named a host.
It's the same tune that he carried following Kentucky's rubber-match loss to Florida last Saturday in Lexington:
"It'd be really hard to imagine us not having a Regional. That's the metric that we use. You know, that should be the No. 1 thing, so I can't imagine there ever being a team with an RPI like ours not hosting."
The Rating Percentage Index (RPI) has often been the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee's crutch when trying to decipher which teams should host, or which teams on the bubble should get in over others. Due to that, Mingione and UK opted to build their 2023 schedule around the metric.
It might not've sounded superbly tough, but road series' at Elon (RPI 60) and Southern Illinois (120), along with a home series against Indiana State (11) built the frame for a résumé that was only improved week in and week out by the ensuing SEC schedule.
Since the first release of the RPI this season, there hasn't been a week where the Cats have been outside of the top cluster of programs. There have been more weeks this season where it ranked No. 1 in RPI than weeks that it didn't.
That's not all, either. Currently No. 2 in RPI behind only Wake Forest, UK also has the No. 1 strength of schedule in the nation. It's non-conference SOS is 37th, the highest in the SEC. It has 11 wins against RPI top-25 opponents and 20 against RPI top-50.
Normally a team with the aforementioned metrics has blitzed through its league and is one of the top teams in the nation. Kentucky is not that. The Cats have 16 wins in-conference — albeit the toughest league in the country. They've lost six of their last seven series and are now 0-1 in postseason play.
The 36-18 record isn't the kind of mark that usually accompanies teams that project the way the numbers suggest they should. Still, entering Hoover, Kentucky was picked as the No. 9 overall seed in D1Baseball's latest Field of 64 projections. Baseball America saw the Cats as the No. 11 seed, still a comfortable host.
Will that change after going one-and-done in Hoover? Mingione pleaded his case as to why it shouldn't on Tuesday, citing metrics, scheduling intent and more:
"They'll reward us for it. When you think about our RPI, where it's at, we have the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country. We played 40 percent of our games against top 25 RPI teams. 40 percent. There are teams out there that they've played two against the top 25. We've played 40 percent. We have the No. 1 non-conference RPI in the country, non-conference strength of schedules under 10.
There's a lot of things that the committee looks at, and I know sometimes they can get accused of moving the goalpost and things like that. But one thing that has never changed is they're looking at scheduling intent. Right? You have to.
And we have the best. We have the absolute best. They'll reward us for that.
Another thing they look at, and you guys know this, it's like how do you do against the teams in the field? How do you do against the teams that are actually in the field? And we've tied for the second most quad 1 wins in the country.
It's definitely been the foundation of what we've been able to do, and not only do you do that, you've got to go out and win, and I give our team a lot of credit. We've won a lot of games against a lot of really good teams.
That's one of the reasons why I believe in this team. We're battle tested, and we'll have a chance to do something really cool in the postseason because of the schedule we played."
NCAA Tournament host sites will be revealed on Sunday night, with the entire field of 64 releasing on Monday, May 29 at noon EST, airing on ESPN2.
The SEC Tournament bracket can be found HERE.
Looking back at UK's series win over Alabama back in March HERE.
Where Kentucky stands in the rankings entering the postseason HERE.
Latest Field of 64 Projections HERE.
Two Wildcats earn All-SEC honors. More HERE.
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