ESPN predicts the winner between Kentucky and #24 Tennessee

After a thrilling comeback win on Wednesday against the LSU Tigers on the road, the Kentucky Wildcats remain away from home as they get set to take on the #24 Tennessee Vols on Saturday in Knoxville. Kentucky has a big opportunity in front of them heading into the rivalry matchup.

Tennessee will be bringing their typical physical style of basketball. The Vols are ranked as one of the best defenses in the country, On KenPom, Tennessee has the 11th-ranked defense in college basketball, including the 10th-best field goal percentage defense. They are not necessarily dangerous in creating turnovers, but they are a respectable defense in that category, although their main threat is how physical they are. With their physicality, the Vols are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Offensively, they rank 5th in college basketball on the glass, while ranking 37th on the defensive end. Tennessee big man Jaylen Carey even ranks 8th nationally in offensive rebound percentage, which could really limit Kentucky's transition opportunities, which is where they can be the most dangerous creating offense.

A massive part of where Kentucky can find success in this game will be their ability to create off of turnovers. Tennessee is one of the sloppiest offenses in the country, including averaging the most turnovers in the SEC since conference play began. The Vols rank 278th in turnover percentage, including 326th in turnovers coming off of steals. If Kentucky can replicate the defensive intensity they showed in the second half against LSU, that could bode well for them. One thing is certain, though, Kentucky can't afford a slow start in a game like this, against one of the best defenses in the country. A big deficit will be hard to come back from.

Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) fives guard Kam Williams (3) after making a three-point basket during the first half. — Jan 10, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) fives guard Kam Williams (3) after making a three-point basket during the first half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

As we get set for the rivalry matchup, ESPN gives Kentucky just a 33% chance to leave Knoxville with the upset win. That seems low, but then again, the Wildcats have rarely found success on the road this season outside of the second-half comeback at LSU. From an optimistic perspective though, Kentucky has actually won two-straight games against Tennessee in Knoxville. The Vols have had their own struggles so far in conference play, as they are 2-2 in conference play, but they are looking to protect home court on Saturday, as both of their conference wins came in Knoxville.

Can Kentucky pull off some magic at Tennessee yet again under Mark Pope and secure another Quad 1 win? We shall see, as the Wildcats will go into this one as underdogs.