The analytics pick the winner between Kentucky and #12 Alabama

Can Will Stein and Kentucky pull off the upset over #12 Alabama?

Sep 5, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Will Stein calls his team in for a timeout during the second quarter against the Youngstown State Penguins at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Arden Barnes-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

On Saturday, Will Stein and the Kentucky Wildcats will welcome the Alabama Crimson Tide into town for what should be the most exciting game in Kroger Field in a very long time. When the big dogs like Georgia and Alabama come to town, Big Blue Nation doesn't always have a ton of confidence, but in this game, Kentucky fans feel they have a shot.

If the Wildcats are able to pull off the upset over the #12 Alabama Crimson Tide, this would give Stein's team a really good shot at making a year-one bowl game. If Stein were to make a bowl game with this tough schedule, BBN would be ecstatic about the first year of the Stein era. While BBN has a ton of faith in the Wildcats to pull off the upset, there are a lot of folks outside of Lexington that don't believe the Wildcats have a shot.

Kentucky’s head coach Will Stein joined the Cat Walk before the first game of the season against Youngstown State at Kroger Field. Sept. 5, 2026 | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

For example, the ESPN Matchup Predictor doesn't give the Wildcats much of a shot to pull off the upset. This matchup predictor only gives the Wildcats a 15.4% chance to win this game. Usually, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives the home team a real boost, but that does not seem to be the case here.

If the Wildcats are going to win this football game, they have to play really well in the trenches. In the blowout week one win over the Penguins of Youngstown State, Stein's offensive line was dominant, and the defensive line did some good things. Kentucky will need to be able to run the ball and stop the run in this football game, which means they have to play well in the trenches.

University of Kentucky offensive lineman Coleton Price, left and Lance Heard speak to members of the media during Kentucky football media day at Kroger Field before the start of fall camp in Lexington, Ky., on Aug. 3, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Kenny Minchey is also going to have to play well in this football game. He was incredibly accurate as a passer in his first game of the season, and fans are hoping this will carry over to Saturday. Big plays will be a key for the Wildcats to pull off the upset so Minchey will need to be accurate with the deep ball on Saturday.

The Crimson Tide are a double-digit favorite in this football game, which goes to show it will take the perfect game for Stein and the Wildcats to get the win. Coach Stein has called for an elite atmosphere in this game, and Big Blue Nation is fired up. Kentucky has a chance to make history on Saturday in Kroger Field.

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