Analytics pick the winner between Kentucky and #25 Vanderbilt

Will Mark Pope's Kentucky Wildcats get revenge in Rupp Arena against Vanderbilt?

Feb 14, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope gestures against the Florida Gators during the first half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

On Saturday, Kentucky will be looking to get revenge against a Vanderbilt team that beat them by 25 points in January, but this matchup could be even tougher. When these teams first met a month ago, the Commodores were without Duke Miles, who is the second leading scorer on this team, averaging 16.3 points per game. Miles has returned and is averaging 13.5 points in his two games back from injury, but he has looked good.

In the first meeting between Kentucky and Vanderbilt, the Wildcats turned the ball over 15 times. Turnovers have been a big issue for Mark Pope’s team, and the Wildcats will have to improve in this area on Saturday, or they will lose this game.

Kentucky got off to a very slow start when these teams played in January, and the game felt over before the under-12 timeout of the first half. The Wildcats were getting good looks, but it looked like there was a lid on the rim as Kentucky just could not make a shot. With a rowdy home crowd in Rupp Arena on Saturday, Kentucky will have to get out to a hot start. If the Wildcats do get out to a hot start, Coach Pope needs to make sure that a substitution doesn’t kill all of the momentum.

Feb 24, 2026; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) drives around South Carolina Gamecocks guard Meechie Johnson (5) during the second half at Colonial Life Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Let’s take a look at KenPom’s prediction for who will win the rematch between these two teams.

KenPom picks the winner between the Kentucky Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores

KenPom believes this is going to be an incredible game, but they do believe Pope’s Wildcats will lose at home. The final score prediction for KenPom has the Commodores winning this game by one point, with the final score being 78-77.

Taking care of the basketball and elite three-point defense will be the key for the Wildcats to win this game. Vanderbilt’s Tyler Nickel is one of the best three-point shooters in the nation, and if he gets hot from three, this will be a tough game for Kentucky to win. In the first meeting between these two teams, Nickel went 2-6 from three, so he didn’t kill the Wildcats from deep.

The other star player for Vanderbilt is Tyler Tanner, and he is one of the best guards in the nation. He played well in these teams' first meeting, so the defense against Tanner will have to be stellar for the Wildcats. If Kentucky is able to win this game, it would be a big boost for seeding in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments.