Analytics predict the winner between Kentucky and North Carolina

Will Kentucky take down North Carolina in the SEC/ACC Challenge?

Nov 11, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope calls out instructions during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Kentucky 96-88. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

The Thanksgiving holiday is over, which means Big Blue Nation's attention has moved to next Tuesday, when the Kentucky Wildcats will take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in the SEC/ACC Challenge.

In year one of the Mark Pope era at Kentucky, the Wildcats lost to the Clemson Tigers in the SEC/ACC Challenge. This year, the Wildcats will look to represent the SEC with a big win over the Tar Heels, who are coming off their first loss of the season at the hands of the Michigan State Spartans.

The number one player that will be a concern for the Wildcats in this game is Caleb Wilson. This name sounds familiar to Kentucky fans, as it should. At one point during this past recruiting cycle, it looked like Wilson was a lock to head to Lexington, but he ended up choosing the Tar Heels.

Nov 18, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) goes up for a dunk against the Navy Midshipmen during the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-Imagn Images | Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

He is off to a red-hot start to his college career. So far through seven games at North Carolina, Wilson is averaging 19.9 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks. The freshman has turned heads as night after night; he puts up an impressive stat line. Wilson will be a big part of this game as he heads to Rupp Arena.

Let's take a look at what KenPom believes the final score of this matchup will be.

KenPom predicts the winner between Kentucky and North Carolina

Nov 21, 2025; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) reacts after making a three point basket during the first half against the Loyola (MD) Greyhounds at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

KenPom seems to think the Wildcats are going to get the win in front of a late-night Rupp Arena crowd as they predict Pope's team to win this game 84-75. If this game were on a neutral site or in Chapel Hill, this would likely be a lot closer of a final score prediction from the best analytics page in college hoops.

In Kentucky's two marquee games so far in non-conference play, the Wildcats have not fared well, but the good news is that this game is at home. It is a weird tip time with this game starting at 9:30 pm on a Tuesday night, but there is no need to worry as BBN will be rowdy.

The Tar Heels are an excellent team so hopefully Kentucky's get right games after the Michigan State loss have Pope's team ready to pick up their best win of the season over UNC.

Slowing Wilson will be key for the Wildcats if Pope's team wants to represent the SEC with a big-time win.