Looking at Kentucky's NCAA Tournament fate following losing streak

After winning eight games out of nine just over a week ago, Kentucky basketball is starting to trend back down in terms of their NCAA Tournament fate. Following a three-game losing streak that includes back-to-back losses to bubble teams in Georgia and Auburn, the Wildcats have dipped in the tournament projections.

Following their 10th loss of the season on Saturday, Kentucky is not on the bubble yet, but if they continue to rack up a few losses, most-notably one on Tuesday to the worst team in the SEC, things could start really turning bad for their hopes of getting in. According to ESPN, the Wildcats are still above the bubble and are currently expected to make the tournament, but how they end the season could change that. Here is what ESPN had to say after putting Kentucky in the "should be in" category.

"The Wildcats had moved into "lock" territory in the forecast models after defeating Tennessee on Feb. 7 for their eighth win in nine games, then three consecutive losses to Florida, Georgia and Auburn dipped their odds to around 95% in the model consensus. Still strong, but enough to warrant further Bubble Watching. Their resume featuring five Quadrant 1 wins, enough to rank around the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, is still around sixth best in the SEC, which projects to send as many as 11 teams in the latest Bracketology. Despite the losses to a trio of tough foes, they're not quite in the danger zone. A bigger concern is that they have one of the nation's toughest remaining schedules, with three of four games against Quadrant 1 foes (two against Quadrant 1A)."

Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope calls out to his players during the first half against the Georgia Bulldogs. — Feb 17, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope calls out to his players during the first half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

As you can see, Kentucky obviously still has a high percentage of a chance to get in the tournament, but if they add some more losses, that can change. Now obviously, if they were to lose-out in these last four games, there chances would become slim, but that's a big if. Right now, Kentucky would be in the tournament, but but it really does all depend on how these last few games go, combined with if they can make some noise in Nashville in the SEC Tournament. Tuesday against South Carolina has now turned into the most important game of the season for the Wildcats, as they really cannot afford another big blemish on their resume, or bubble talk will get real interesting in a bad way.

What Kentucky does with these last four games will be telling, but it all starts with actually taking care of business at South Carolina on Tuesday night.