Predicting how many games the Kentucky Wildcats will win in the NCAA Tournament

Will Kentucky win multiple games in the Big Dance?

Jan 31, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope prior to the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena. Kentucky won 85-77. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

The Kentucky Wildcats will play their first game in the NCAA Tournament on Friday, and many fans are wondering if this team has any kind of run up its sleeve. One of the big reasons it is hard to believe that this team is capable of going on a run is the fact that the Wildcats have been very inconsistent.

Kentucky will win two great games in a row, then have an all-systems failure. Teams like this don’t often make a ton of noise in the NCAA Tournament, but the Wildcats are talented, and anything can happen. The issue for the Wildcats is that they are a seven-seed. If this team is going to go on a run, they will have to beat a really good ten-seed in Santa Clara, then take down two-seed Iowa State.

Mar 7, 2026; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope looks on during the second half against the Florida Gators at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Iowa State is a team that a lot of folks share different opinions on. Some believe the Cyclones are a Final Four team, while others believe they should be on upset alert in the first weekend. I personally am of the camp that the Cyclones are a great team, but if Kentucky plays well, they can beat them.

Santa Clara is also a solid team that, if Kentucky lets its guard down, the Wildcats could lose and have a rough trip back to Lexington. The Broncos shoot the ball really well from deep, which has been an issue for Kentucky of late. Cinderella type of team that shoot the ball well from three have been an issue for Kentucky over the last handful of years, so the Wildcats need to watch out.

Mar 12, 2026; Nashville, TN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) reacts after a made three point basket against the Missouri Tigers during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

If they make it to the second weekend, more than likely the Wildcats would be playing either Tennessee or Virginia. Big Blue Nation would love to see the Wildcats take on either of these teams, but don’t want to see history repeat itself against the Vols in the Sweet 16. Kentucky has beaten the Volunteers twice this season already. Virginia is a tad bit overrated in my opinion so this would also be a good Sweet 16 matchup.

Prediction wise my brain tells me the Wildcats will take down Santa Clara then lose to Iowa State in the Round of 32. It would not be one bit surprising for the Wildcats to pull off this upset over the Cyclones, but Iowa State is a much better team than the Wildcats. A run from Pope and the Wildcats would really quiet the members of Big Blue Nation who want him gone.