Analytics don't like Mark Pope's Kentucky Wildcats to win the SEC

Can Kentucky win the SEC despite the tough remaining schedule?

Jan 31, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope prior to the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena. Kentucky won 85-77. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Only seven games remain in the regular season for the Kentucky Wildcats, and they have put themselves in a position where, against all odds, this team has a chance to win the SEC Regular Season Title. Kentucky sits at 8-3 in SEC play, which has them a half game behind the Florida Gators, who are 8-2 in conference play.

Assuming the Florida Gators are able to take down the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens on Wednesday, the Wildcats will go into the matchup between these two teams one game behind the Gators. If Kentucky is able to take down Florida on the road, the tiebreaker would put Mark Pope’s team in first place in the SEC.

Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope after winning a NCAA basketball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Kentucky Wildcats at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center in Knoxville, Tenn., on Jan. 17, 2026. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I think if you told most Kentucky fans that the Wildcats would have a chance to be first in the SEC after starting 0-2 in SEC play, most members of Big Blue Nation would have laughed. Coach Pope has done an incredible job turning this season around, knowing all of the adversity this team has faced.

Despite Kentucky being one of the hottest teams in college basketball, ESPN does not seem to be a big believer in the Wildcats chances of winning the SEC Regular Season Title. Let’s take a look at the chances ESPN is giving Pope’s team to win the SEC.

ESPN’s chances for Kentucky to win the SEC Regular Season Title

Jan 27, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope directs his team against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

ESPN gives Pope’s Wildcats a 10.9% chance to win the SEC Regular Season Title, with the Florida Gators being heavy favorites. ESPN is giving the defending National Champions an 87.5% chance to win the SEC. Part of the reason ESPN is so heavy on the Gators is that they rank Florida’s remaining schedule as the 31st toughest in college hoops, while Kentucky’s is the fourth toughest.

Knowing how easy Florida’s remaining schedule is compared to the Wildcats, Pope’s team would need to sweep the Gators to have a real shot at winning the SEC. The Gators very well could lose some games they are not supposed to, like this matchup with Georgia in Athens on Wednesday. The way Kentucky can keep this in its own hands is by beating the Gators twice.

It is miraculous that we are able to even have this conversation, and all of the thanks for this is owed to Coach Pope and the incredible job he has done. Saturday’s matchup with Florida will be massive for seeing who will win the SEC this year.