Three Reasons Why Kansas State will Win and Three Reasons why Kansas State will Lose vs. rival Kansas
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Kansas State and Kansas scheduled their bye weeks before the most important game on their schedule — against each other.
The Wildcats and Jayhawks want to make sure every T is crossed, every I is dotted. They want plenty of time for rest and preparation. This is the essence of rivalry games.
A victory in the Sunflower Showdown can make a team’s season. Kickoff Saturday is 11 a.m. CT. K-State and KU have played each other every year since 1911 (the first meeting was 1902).
“You can take everything and throw it out when it comes to this game, especially when both teams have bye weeks,” K-State coach Chris Klieman said. ”So you’re going to see different looks I’m sure.”
K-State is a 3-point underdog according to BetMGM Sportsbook, the first time Kansas has been the favorite since 2009, according to OddsShark.
The Wildcats are 3-4, 2-2 in the Big 12. Kansas is 4-3, 2-2. K-State is coming off a home win over TCU, 41-28. Kansas is coming off a 42-17 loss at Texas Tech.
The rivals have met 122 times, with Kansas leading the series, 64-53-5.
For every game, we will give you three reasons the Wildcats will win, and three reasons they won’t.
Why Kansas State will win
Well, the Wildcats always do … for some time
K-State has won 16 consecutive games against the Jayhawks. Hard to believe in such an intense rivalry, but Kansas hasn’t won this game since 2009.
“The streak’s going to have nothing to do with Saturday,” Klieman said. “Who can friggin’ block? Who can get off blocks? Who can tackle? Who can make plays on the ball? Who can do all the little things and in this game those little things get magnified.”
The last two meetings were close — 29-27 last year in Manhattan; 31-27 at Lawrence in 2023.
“This program is aware how many games they’ve won in a row,” Kansas coach Lance Leipold said. “I’m not going to act like they don’t [know].
“And we shared that with our players, as part of the process of where this is at. They can’t change what was done in the past. What you can change is what you do today, the work you put in and what you do on Saturday.”
K-State expects to win. Sometimes, that's enough to make it happen.
Avery Johnson and running game
If the K-State quarterback plays like the dual threat he is, this will be a big bonus for the Wildcats.
Kansas is ranked 118th in the country in rushing yards allowed with 188.3. K-State ranks 83rd in rushing offense with 143.6 yards per game.
Expect the Wildcats to try to establish the run early and, if successful, continue to exploit the KU defense throughout the game.
Time is running out
From its preseason ranking of No. 17 in the AP Top 25 Poll, to a current ranking of 64th by The Athletic, the Wildcats have been a disappointment.
K-State was the second-highest Big 12 team ranked in the preseason, behind defending conference champion Arizona State at No. 11.
K-State has played five one-score games and lost four of them.
The Wildcats still can go to a bowl game. Their season, especially if they lose to Kansas, could fall apart. This week’s game means more than just the rivalry. K-State could grab back some of those preseason feelings with a win.
Why Kansas will win
Home-field advantage
The Jayhawks are 37-23-2 vs. Kansas State in Lawrence. Not sure what those KU wins in the 1940s mean today, but home field is home field and the Jayhawks will have a sellout crowd behind them, eager (and maybe desperate) to end this ugly losing streak to their biggest rival.
“Fans in college football are more impactful than sometimes we can realize, in creating that atmosphere,” Leipold said.
“Yes we have a renovated, two-thirds brand-new shiny stadium that’s really impressive, but if we don’t have an environment in there, it’ll not be fully put to its use.
“We need our students, we need our fans, and again, in a state rivalry game like this, we need it to be special, and not just for this game, but every one there to follow, and it is important.”
Jalon Daniels
If the Jayhawks finally end the streak, redshirt senior quarterback Jalon Daniels will be in the middle of it.
Daniels has completed 130-of-186 passing (69.8 percent) for 1,752 yards with 18 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Daniels’ 18 touchdown passes are tied for sixth most in the nation and matches his career high.
His career numbers are almost as impressive: 666-of-1,060 passes (62.8 percent) for 8,503 yards with 63 touchdowns and 26 interceptions.
Daniels is an effective runner, too. He has rushed for 1,240 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Daniels is a four-time team captain, the first in Kansas history. He also is one of 16 finalists for the 2025 William V. Campbell Trophy, the nation’s premier scholar-athlete award.
“They’re really talented and as I watch them it all starts with Daniels,” Klieman said. “I’ve been really, really impressed with him for a number of years now. He’s been in the program, been in their system.
“Have so much respect for how he plays and you can tell he’s the leader of the whole group. He’s played really well.”
Exploiting Kansas State’s defense
The Wildcats allow 27 points per game, 13th in the 16-team Big 12. Every K-State opponent has scored at least 23 points.
With Daniels and top-notch wide receiver Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (31 receptions, 530 yards, 4 TDs) and tight end Boden Groen (25 receptions, 310 yards, 3 TDs), the Jayhawks should put points on the board.
“They have some really good skill kids on offense as they always do and he [Daniels] makes them go on offense,” Klieman said.
K-State ranks 88th in passing yards allowed with 232.3 per game. Kansas ranks 39th in passing yards per game with 263.3.
The winner: Rivalry games can bring the unexpected and the unpredictable. K-State faces a tough task at rival Kansas. But if you believe that talent wins out over home-field advantage, you gotta like the Wildcats. K-State 31, Kansas 27. Season record: 3-0.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Chuck Bausman is a writer for Kansas State on SI. Chuck formerly was the Executive Sports Editor of the Philadelphia Daily News, Executive Sports Editor of the Courier-Post in South Jersey and Sports Copy Editor for the Detroit Free Press. He has been a Big Ten enthusiast for nearly forever. He learned how to cuss by watching Philly sports. You can reach Chuck at: bausmac@icloud.com