Three Reasons Why Kansas State will Win; Three Reasons Why Kansas State will Lose vs. Texas Tech
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Kansas State saved its season by winning three of four games, including Saturday’s 42-17 road victory over rival Kansas, its 17th consecutive win in the Sunflower Showdown.
On Saturday, Texas Tech ranked 13th and sporting a fancy, 7-1 record (4-1 in the Big 12), visits Manhattan for a 2:30 CT kickoff. K-State is 4-4, 3-2 in the Big 12. K-State is a 7.5-point underdog.
K-State has won eight consecutive games over Texas Tech, dating to 2015. The last Texas Tech win was 59-44 over the visiting Wildcats. The Tech quarterback had a day: 33-of-42 passes for 384 yards and three touchdowns.
The QB that day was a guy named Patrick Mahomes.
K-State needs a win to enhance its chances at a bowl game, something that seemed unlikely when the Wildcats were 1-3.
“We have a really good football team coming in here with Texas Tech,” K-State coach Chris Klieman said.
“We have to come up with great plans and have great focus because it’s going to be a heck of a battle.”
The Red Raiders’ only loss was at Arizona State and they almost pulled that game out late in the fourth quarter. Texas Tech was ranked seventh in the country before losing to ASU.
Most sportsbooks have installed Texas Tech as a 7-point favorite.
For every game, we will give you three reasons the Wildcats will win, and three reasons they won’t.
Also, this weekend features a K-State tradition unlike any other. Harley Day brings more than 100 motorcycles roaring around the field before kickoff.
Why Kansas State will win
K-State playing well
K-State is in the process of resurrecting its season. The Wildcats, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, have an 86.1 percent chance of winning six games and becoming bowl eligible.
“We weren’t playing very well, and the guys, and coaches owned it, that we weren’t a very good football team,” Klieman said.
“That’s half the battle. We weren’t coaching very well, and it starts with me, and we weren’t playing very well, so we had to go back to square one.”
The Wildcats know another win will make their season. The home crowd will help upset the Red Raiders.
K-State’s offense
K-State has averaged 37.8 points over its last four games. The Wildcats are tied for third in scoring among Power 4 schools since Sept. 27. Utah (41 points per game) and Pitt (38.4) have averaged more points than K-State since Sept. 27.
Their only loss in October was at Baylor, 35-34, a heartbreaker that could have gone the Wildcats’ way.
Quarterback Avery Johnson helped K-State knock off Kansas. Johnson completed 11-of-17 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns. He also scored two rushing touchdowns.
Johnson will have to be a Texas Tech focus. If the Wildcats pull the upset, Johnson will be right in the mix.
If you like a revenge plot, K-State offensive coordinator Matt Wells is a former Texas Tech head coach, going 13-17 from 2019-21.
Momentum from KU win
You could look at a huge victory over your rival, on the road, two ways: Momentum is an unstoppable force; or, the Wildcats will be flat after crushing Kansas.
“There’s a lot more juice and energy when you play good football and it shows and you win a few games, then you go on the road like we did at KU in a game that not a lot of people thought we were going to win, and then we dominated that game,” Klieman said.
“Yeah, it brings a lot of energy to the team, and it brings a lot of energy to the program.”
We buy into energy and momentum. Another thing: Underdogs thrive on turnovers. K-State leads Power 4 schools in with 17 forced turnovers.
Why Texas Tech will win
Red Raiders’ defense
Texas Tech is ranked 10th nationally in total defense, allowing 264.6 yards per game. Another issue for K-State: Texas Tech is ranked fourth (with Iowa) in fewest points allowed with 12.38 per game.
The Red Raiders know they have to slow down Johnson and keep K-State out of the end zone. That’s the key to Texas Tech winning.
Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is one of the best in the nation. He is the second-highest graded defensive player in college football this season according to Pro Football Focus.
Raiders' numbers are too overwhelming
Statistically, Texas Tech is a powerhouse and not just with its 10th total-defense ranking, and fourth in fewest points allowed.
The Red Raiders are even more dangerous when they have the ball. Tech is ranked fourth in total offense with 499.4 yards per game. K-State is ranked 73rd in total defense.
Tech is fourth in points scored at 43.6 per game. K-State is 83rd in points allowed at 25.75 per game.
Statistics don’t win games but they surely can be a roadmap to what might happen.
Behren Morton is back
The senior started the first five games and played in the sixth game before suffering a leg injury. He’s one of the best QBs in Tech history.
“I think they’re playing at a really high level, but we have so many playmakers on the field, at the end of the day, there’s not enough guys on defense that can stop our offense, and it comes down to me just getting the ball to playmakers and letting them do the work,” Morton said.
The winner: Did Kansas State turn the corner with its big win at Kansas? There’s a chance that’s true. Would like to ride the hot team but Texas Tech might be the Big 12’s best team: Texas Tech 34, K-State 24. Season record: 4-0.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Chuck Bausman is a writer for Kansas State on SI. Chuck formerly was the Executive Sports Editor of the Philadelphia Daily News, Executive Sports Editor of the Courier-Post in South Jersey and Sports Copy Editor for the Detroit Free Press. He has been a Big Ten enthusiast for nearly forever. He learned how to cuss by watching Philly sports. You can reach Chuck at: bausmac@icloud.com