Keys to the game for K-State’s defense vs. Cincinnati plus a bold prediction

Kansas State’s defense has been one of the nation’s best through three games, ranking top five nationally in sack rate, tackles for loss per game, yards per play allowed, completion percentage given up and more.

If there has been one weakness to date, it’s explosives allowed in the running game. K-State is last in the Big 12 in rushing explosives given up and is 128th out of 138 FBS teams nationally. The Wildcats have allowed 16 rushes of 10 or more yards. Only 23 teams have allowed more on the season.

Despite this, K-State still ranks No. 23 nationally allowing 2.8 yards per carry, though that is partially due to all the negative plays the defense has generated (10 tackles for loss per game, including 3.67 sacks per game).

The Wildcats will face not only their toughest test upfront thus far, but possibly the best offensive line they’ll see during the 2026 season as they travel to Cincinnati tonight to open Big 12 play.

Cincinnati’s rushing attack vs. K-State’s defense

The Bearcats’ offensive line was ranked as the No. 2 unit in the Big 12 and 11th-best nationally in Brett Ciancia’s positional rankings on Pick Six Previews coming into the season. The group was a Joe Moore Award semifinalist last season, which is given to the country’s best offensive line. Cincinnati finished second nationally with only eight sacks allowed in 2025, and ranked top 10 in the country with 5.7 yards per carry.

The Bearcats returned three starters upfront, all of whom have earned All-Big 12 honors at some point during their careers. The group is highlighted by guard Evan Tengesdahl, who was a third-team Associated Press All-American last season and was ranked by Pro Football Focus (PFF) as the best guard in the Big 12 and sixth best nationally last season.

Left tackle Joe Cotton is also a preseason All-Big 12 First-Team selection, while center Taran Tyo has graded out as the country’s fourth-best center through three games, according to Pro Football Network (PFN). Right tackle Judea Milon is PFN’s top-graded right tackle in the FBS thus far this season, and guard Xavier Lozowicki has graded out as the No. 6 right guard during the 2026 season.

The group is helping pave the way for one of the country’s best rushing attacks through three games. Cincinnati is 15th nationally with 6.3 yards per carry, and perhaps more notable when speaking to explosive runs given up by K-State, the Bearcats are No. 6 in the country with 25 rushes of 10-plus yards, and are tied for 10th nationally with eight carries that have gone over 20 yards.

Cincinnati is allowing a havoc rate of just 9.6%, which is 16th nationally. The Wildcats’ defense has posted a havoc rate of over 26% through three games, a mark that ranks No. 1 in the Big 12 and eighth in the country, while the front seven’s havoc rate of over 20% is fourth nationally.

If K-State can slow down the Cincinnati running game and force the Bearcats into third-and-five or longer frequently, I like the Wildcats’ chances.

Cincinnati passing attack vs. K-State

Cincinnati quarterback JC French IV numbers look impressive on paper. He has completed over 76% of his passes, ranking sixth nationally, and has yet to throw an interception. In fact, PFF has credited him with zero turnover-worthy plays this season. That’s a drastic improvement for the Georgia Southern transfer, who had 19 interceptions combined over the previous two years before arriving at Cincinnati.

But how sustainable are the numbers French IV is putting up? He ranks 132nd out of 138 FBS quarterbacks and last in the Big 12 in average depth of target (ADOT) at just 6.5 yards per pass. In other words, the Bearcats aren’t challenging defenses much downfield. They are 104th nationally and 13th in the Big 12 in passing explosives. Only UCF has less receptions of 20 or more yards in the Big 12. It’s also notable that Miami (Ohio) and Boston College–the two FBS teams the Bearcats have played–are 132nd and 100th nationally in opposing passer rating allowed.

Now, the Bearcats will face the country’s No. 4 defense in passer rating allowed. K-State has held opponents to under a 45% completion percentage, the second-best mark in the country, though it’s also fair to point out the Wildcats have not been challenged by good quarterback play or high-quality offenses to date.

One thing the Wildcats must be cognizant of tonight is keeping contain when pressuring French IV. K-State’s defensive ends love to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback, and they’re good at it, ranking No. 2 nationally with a near 18% sack rate. But they’ll have to ensure they don’t allow French IV to escape the pocket and beat them with his legs. He leads the Big 12 with 15 scrambles, while K-State quarterback Avery Johnson is second in the league with 11, according to PFF.

Bold prediction

French IV doesn’t have an interception or even a turnover-worthy play to date on the season. K-State’s secondary–for as good as it’s been–has yet to record an interception.

That ends tonight. The Wildcats will intercept a throw from French IV, and they’ll win the game 27-24.

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