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Keys to Victory for Kansas State vs. Baylor

Can the Kansas State Wildcats defy the odds and make a run in the Big 12 after early bumps in the road? These are the keys to their success
Jordan Epp|
Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Kansas State WildcatsBaylor Bears

The 2-3 (1-1, Big 12) Kansas State Wildcats travel to Waco, Texas, to take on the 3-2 (1-1) Baylor Bears in what is expected to be a tight road matchup.

For K-State, this game represents an opportunity to continue its momentum after a rocky start to the season. Following losses to Army, Iowa State, and Arizona and an uninspiring victory over North Dakota, the Wildcats seemed to find their form against the UCF Knights. Back-to-back conference wins coming out of a bye week could be what the team needs to flip their season around.

As for Baylor, there is still much to prove. The Bears have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, putting up 40+ points in three of their five games this season. However, the defense has underdelivered for a Dave Aranda unit, conceding the seventh-most yards per game (430.5) of any Power Four program.

The Wildcats showed their blueprint to success in Week 5, but on what do they need to execute to improve to 2-1 in conference play?

Keep the pedal pressed down in the run game

Dylan Edwards' return against UCF was critical for Kansas State. Even if you removed his 45-yard rushing touchdown, he still averaged 8.2 yards per carry on nine attempts.

As well, quarterback Avery Johnson had a season-high mark in rushing attempts with 12. He had more scrambles (four) and rushing yards (75) than he had in the first four weeks combined (three and 62, respectively).

With the duo running all over the Knights' defense, this opens up the play-action offense that the Wildcats want to run, which best fits Johnson's skill set as a passer. He has averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt on play-action passes compared to 5.4 yards without it.

Johnson had similar splits in 2024, throwing 15 touchdowns and three interceptions on play-action passes; however, he threw seven touchdowns and six interceptions on regular passes.

The Wildcats seemed to do everything they could to get the running game going, including experimenting with backup quarterback Blake Barnett in two-quarterback sets. K-State could probably afford to simplify things in Week 6, but they should keep their foot on the gas, especially as they look to play complementary football and keep the ball away from Baylor's offense.

Limit big plays

Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson is tied for fourth in the nation with 12 big-time throws this season, and he is tied for third in pass attempts 20+ yards down the field (32). The Bears are not afraid to big game hunt, and the Wildcats looked like a target against the Knights.

After conceding just one big play in the first half, UCF totaled six plays of 30+ yards against K-State in the second half and punted just once. Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman said the "air got deflated out of us" after the 82-yard touchdown at the end of the first half, and he chided his defense for failing to finish plays.

Kansas State Wildcats cornerback Justice Clemons (5) celebrates a fumble during the second half of the game against UCF
Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Against the Bears, the Wildcats must be more careful and technical, not just in the passing game but in the running game. Running back Bryson Washington has 12 carries of 10+ yards this season, and Baylor runs the 11th-most plays per game in the country (77.5).

If Baylor can run the up-tempo offense it wants, the high volume of plays and speed create opportunities for defenses to make mistakes. Kansas State will need to be disciplined and consistent. Given how poorly the offense started the year, the Wildcats' defense has been relatively solid all season, but Week 6 will be a test of its resolve.

What is Jayce Brown's status?

The Wildcats' leading receiver did not play in their Week 5 win over UCF, a 34-20 victory at home. Jayce Brown was left on the sideline, but he is listed as probable to return against Baylor, a key for K-State's offense.

Without Brown, Jaron Tibbs led the team through the air with eight receptions for 72 yards. However, no other player had more than two catches, and only one other player had more than 20 yards. Brown has cleared those numbers in all four games (25 catches for 284 yards this season).

If Johnson's favorite target can return, the answers on offense will be easier for the athletic quarterback, and it will put additional pressure on a Baylor defense allowing over 430 yards per game.

Can the Wildcats create chaos?

A cornered animal is a dangerous one, and the Wildcats fought with teeth and claws against UCF instead of rolling over. The defense forced four turnovers, and the offense got creative, incorporating two-quarterback sets, a wide receiver pass, and jet motion for Edwards, who was lined up out wide.

"The effectiveness could have been because they weren't expecting it for sure, and it was a different formation, and you can only go to the well so often," Klieman said of the multi-QB package. "But we needed a spark, and we wanted to get that spark."

Baylor is considered the early favorite at home, and Kansas State may need to create some more chaos in Week 6 — maybe not necessarily on offense, but this time on defense. The Wildcats have the second-lowest-graded pass rush in the Big 12, but they are inside the top 45 in sacks per game and sack percentage.

There is a lot that Kansas State's secondary has to prepare for against Baylor. Robertson has performed well under pressure this season, getting the ball out and avoiding sacks.

The Bears' receiving options are deep, so if the secondary can hold strong and K-State defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman can find ways to keep Robertson on his toes, it could give the Wildcats their best opportunity to win.

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Jordan Epp
JORDAN EPP

Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.

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