Previewing and Predicting the Final Four Games on K-State Football’s 2026 schedule

In the final piece of this three-part series we preview and breakdown each of K-State's final four opponents on the 2026 schedule. I currently have K-State at 6-2 overal and 3-2 in Big 12 play heading into the final month of the regular season following part one and part two of this series.

Can Collin Klein reach double-digit wins in his first year as the Wildcats' head coach and potentially make it to the Big 12 Championship? It's going to require perfection in the season's final four games based on where I have K-State sitting heading into the final third of the season.

Nov. 7, Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State hasn’t won a Big 12 game since 2023, and has lost 20 consecutive contests to FBS opponents. But that losing streak should end relatively early this season. Long-time head coach Mike Gundy, the school’s all-time winningest coach, was fired prior to the start of conference play last season. The Cowboys hired one of the hottest names in college football this offseason, nabbing North Texas’ Eric Morris as the program’s next head coach.

Most of the Cowboys’ players involved in that losing stretch are gone. Oklahoma State brought in 92 new players, including 65 via the transfer portal. The big names are guys who followed Morris from North Texas, highlighted by quarterback Drew Mestemaker.

Mestemaker, 6-foot-3, 215-pound sophomore was a former walk on with the Mean Green. He threw for nearly 4,400 yards last season to lead the country—over 400 yards more than the next closest quarterback. Mestemaker ranked fourth nationally in passer rating and led college football with 9.5 yards per pass attempt. His 34 touchdowns through the air tied for second-most nationally.

Morris is known as an offensive guru and has a track record of developing some of the game’s best quarterbacks. The Mean Green led the country with 3.79 points per drive in 2025.

Morris played at Texas Tech under Mike Leach, and was Leach’s wide receivers coach at Washington State. From there, he took the co-offensive coordinator job at his alma mater following the 2012 season, and was promoted to sole offensive coordinator in 2014. He was Patrick Mahomes’ offensive coordinator as well as the wide receivers coach during his three seasons as the Texas Tech starting quarterback, including the 4,653 yards Mahomes threw for in 2015 and 5,052 passing yards in 2016.

Morris’ success in Lubbock led to him taking the head coaching position at Incarnate Word, where he went 24-18 over four seasons. He developed Cam Ward at Incarnate Word. Ward threw for over 4,600 yards, 47 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions under Morris in 2021. Morris moved on to become the offensive coordinator at Washington State under head coach Jake Dickert, and Ward followed him there for one season before eventually transferring to Miami (Fl.) and becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Morris became the head coach at North Texas in 2023, and guided the program to an 11-2 season in his third and final season in Denton.

Mestemaker wasn’t the only big-time talent to follow Morris to Stillwater. Running back Caleb Hawkins joins him after rushing for 1,434 yards last season as a freshman, sixth-highest nationally, while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. The 6-foot, 220-pound sophomore led the country with 25 rushing touchdowns in 2025. His 43 rushes of 10 or more yards tied for second-most nationally while he also recorded 32 receptions for 370 yards and four touchdowns.

Receiver Wyatt Young, who had 70 receptions for 1,264 yards at North Texas last season, will be Mestemaker’s top weapon in the passing game. And he will be protected by offensive tackle Braydon Nelson, an all-conference American Athletic Conference (AAC) selection last season, as well as all-league guard Johnny Dickson III.

There’s no doubt Oklahoma State will be good offensively. The question mark is its defense. Defensive coordinator Skylar Cassity followed Morris to Stillwater. Cassity was North Texas’ defensive coordinator in 2025, where he substantially improved a dreadful 2024 Mean Green defense. Cassity did a remarkable job as the defensive coordinator at Sam Houston State in 2024, the program’s second season at the FBS level. Sam Houston ranked 13th nationally in points per drive allowed with Cassity leading the defense.

Cassity brought stud linebacker Ethan Wesloski with him. Wesloski was First Team All-AAC at North Texas and his overall defensive grade of 90.6 last season is the best out of any linebacker in the Big 12 heading into this season, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Oklahoma State is expected to be involved in several close games this season, with seven games projected to be decided by one score, according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ on ESPN. I expect the matchup in Manhattan to be no different, with the Wildcats coming out on top in an offensive shootout, 38-35.

Prediction: K-State 38, Oklahoma State 35

Record: 7-2 (4-2 Big 12)

Nov. 14, at TCU

Is TCU the latest to fall victim to the Ireland curse after losing to North Carolina 15-10 in Dublin in Week 0? Odds are not in their favor. Nebraska lost to Northwestern in Dublin in 2022 and proceeded to go 4-8, firing head coach Scott Frost. In 2024, Florida State fell to Georgia Tech in Ireland and finished the season 2-10. The Seminoles’ struggles have continued ever since, going 5-7 in 2025 and head coach Mike Norvell finds himself on the hot seat this season.

Meanwhile, K-State fell to Iowa State in Ireland last season and proceeded to go 6-6, the Wildcats’ worst season under Chris Klieman outside of the pandemic season. Klieman went on to retire after the season. So what’s that mean for Sonny Dykes and his Horned Frog team coming off the heels of a frustrating, ugly loss against the Tar Heels? We’ll see. TCU has won nine or more games in three of Dykes’ four seasons in Fort Worth.

I’m not writing TCU off just yet. But if things don’t look better quickly, I might change my stance on this game. TCU returns 51% of its overall production heading into 2026, which ranks 69th nationally and 14th in the Big 12, according to Bill Connelly of ESPN.

TCU only returns 44% of its offensive production, which is tied with Baylor and Iowa State for lowest in the Big 12. The buzz coming out of the offseason was how good Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig had looked in practice. That sure didn’t show up last Saturday in Dublin, as Craig and his teammates struggled, only producing one touchdown, which came on a short field that started just 25 yards from the UNC end zone. Craig averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, and failed to use his mobility TCU had talked about all offseason, as he was sacked three times and finished with four rushes for negative 22 yards.

Dykes replaced offensive coordinator Kendal Briles this offseason with UConn offensive coordinator, Gordon Sammis. Sammis was the coordinator of the best Huskies’ offense in 22 seasons, per Bill Connelly. UConn threw for 30 touchdowns and just one interception last season under his guidance, completing 68% of its passes for nearly 3,700 yards while rushing for almost 2,100 yards and 5.1 yards per carry. Sammis’ scheme is a far cry from Briles, who was notorious for abandoning the running game. Sammis is an offensive line coach by trade, and believes in running the ball. He has a good running back to lean on in Jeremy Payne, who was one of the few bright spots in the season opener as he rushed for 142 yards on 25 carries against the Tar Heels.

TCU defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has been a mainstay for Dykes during his time in Fort Worth, consistently producing solid defenses year in and year out. The defense looked fine in the season opener, yielding just 15 points to North Carolina, though quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. did average 8.3 yards per pass on 28 throws.

I picked K-State to lose this game last month. I’m going to stick with that right now, but this pick could change as we get into October and see what really happens with this TCU program. If it’s anything like past teams that lost in Ireland, the Horned Frogs could end up having a disastrous season and their care factor could be minimal by the time K-State rolls into Fort Worth. I’ll pick TCU to win 27-24, but I reserve the right to amend this pick in a few weeks if TCU doesn’t look drastically better.

Prediction: TCU: 27, K-State 24

Record: 7-3 (4-3 Big 12)

Nov. 21, Arizona

If you’re K-State, you have to like getting a warm-weather team at home in late November. You also like where this game falls on Arizona’s schedule, as it hosts Utah the week prior to coming to Manhattan, and plays in-state rival Arizona State the following week after playing K-State. On paper, it’s a difficult sandwich spot for Arizona.

Brent Brennan heads into year three as the Wildcats’ head coach. There was talk of Brennan being on the hot seat after just his first year leading the program, but he resoundingly bounced back in year two, leading Arizona to a 9-4 season and a fourth-place tie in the Big 12 at 6-3.

Arizona ranks 32nd nationally in returning production overall at 60%, which is fifth-most in the Big 12, per Bill Connelly at ESPN. Though Arizona lost a significant amount of talent on defense, which was its greatest strength in 2025.

Let’s start there, where first-year defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales sparked a remarkable turnaround. Arizona’s defense ranked No. 1 nationally in opposing quarterback rating (QBR). The Wildcats ranked second nationally with 22 interceptions, and led the country with 2.5 turnovers forced per game. They ranked 18th nationally in points per drive allowed and ninth in the country in yards allowed per drop-back attempt.

Arizona lost much of its firepower on defense, including four players in its secondary getting taken in the 2026 NFL Draft. In an effort to fill that void, Arizona added eight defensive backs in the transfer portal this offseason and retained All-Big 12 corner Jay’vion Cole.

Offensively, Arizona returns preseason First Team All-Big 12 quarterback Noah Fifita, who bounced back last season after struggling during his first season in the Big 12 Conference in 2024. Fifita threw for over 3,200 yards along with 29 touchdowns last season, including just two interceptions over the final seven games. Fifita already owns Arizona’s all-time passing touchdowns record, and needs just 600 yards to pass Nick Foles as the program’s all-time leader in career passing yards.

However, Fifita will have to rely on mostly new weapons at the skill positions this season. His top two receivers are gone. Tre Spivey, who spent two seasons at K-State, is Fifita’s top returning wide receiver. Three of the Wildcats’ starting offensive linemen, including All-Big 12 left tackle Ty Buchanan, are also gone.

I foresee a bit of a regression in year three for Brennan’s team, and expect K-State to protect its home turf, defeating Arizona 31-24.

Prediction: K-State 31, Arizona 24

Record: 8-3 (5-3 Big 12)

Nov. 28, at Iowa State

Kansas State has lost three straight to the Cyclones and four of the last five matchups. The Wildcats’ lone victory over the last five years was a 10-9 win in Ames in 2022. Matt Campbell had Chris Klieman’s number. But Campbell is now the head coach at Penn State and took most of his top players with him to Happy Valley.

New head coach Jimmy Rogers inherits a roster that ranks 102nd nationally in returning production at 45%, which is the lowest in the Big 12, according to Bill Connelly on ESPN. The next closest Big 12 team in returning production is Arizona State, which is 71st nationally at 51%. Over 50 Cyclones players hit the transfer portal this offseason.

Rogers arrives in Ames after one season as the head coach at Washington State, where he went 7-6. As noted in part one of this series, Rogers’ Cougars’ squad found itself in several other games against high-level opponents, narrowly losing games to two college football playoff teams in Ole Miss and James Madison, as well as squandering a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to 11-win Virginia. Rogers was the head coach at South Dakota State for two seasons prior to arriving in Pullman. He led the Jackrabbits to a 27-3 record over those two years, including an FCS national championship in his first season.

Much like Campbell did with his former players, Rogers has taken a significant number of his players with him to Ames, including defensive end Isaac Terrell, who had seven sacks last season. Rogers also brought Jesse Bobbit, his defensive coordinator at Washington State, to Iowa State.

Offensively, Iowa State will turn to Jaylen Raynor at quarterback. Raynor has completed 63% of his 1,206 passes in his career for nearly 8,700 yards, 52 touchdowns and 28 interceptions during three seasons at Arkansas State. Raynor has dual-threat capability having rushed for nearly 1,200 yards (after sacks) during his three-year career.

Iowa State may be the worst team in the Big 12 in 2026. The Cyclones simply lack proven power-four talent. I don’t expect any game to ever be easy in Ames, but I do anticipate K-State ends the three-game losing streak to Iowa State as Collin Klein finishes the regular season with a 9-3 record overall and 6-3 campaign in league play. As I wrote on Sunday, winning nine games as a first-year power-conference head coach would be quite the feat, and would place him alongside some of the top active head coaches in college football whose first head coaching job was at the power-four or power-five level.

Prediction: K-State 24, Iowa State 16

Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12)

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