Three reasons why Kansas State will win; three reasons why Kansas State will lose vs. Baylor

After a victory that might have salvaged Kansas State’s season, the Wildcats (2-3) face a difficult road test at Baylor.

K-State is 2-1 vs. Baylor in their last three meetings, outscoring the Bears, 100-48.

K-State defeated unbeaten UCF, 34-20, for its first Big 12 win this season last Saturday.

“We needed to have that feeling back,” K-State coach Chris Klieman said. “It had been a while since we celebrated in the locker room, but the guys know why we were successful.

“We talked a little bit about it on Saturday afternoon of better energy, better physicality, better emotion, all those things.”

This could be a game decided by which team’s weakness is not so bad. Baylor is ranked 90th in total defense, allowing 383.2 yards per game. But K-State is ranked only 102nd in total offense (343.4 yards per game).

For every game, we will give you three reasons the Wildcats will win and three reasons they won’t. Maybe the Wildcats duplicating that winning feeling will go a long way this Saturday.

Why Kansas State will win

Maybe Wildcats’ luck has turned around

K-State’s three losses have been by one score. It can happen to any team. One-score games usually aren’t decided because one team mauled the other.

One-score games can be decided by a freak bounce, a bad penalty, a lucky play, an untimely turnover. The Wildcats believe they are close to straightening out their season and that started with the victory over UCF last Saturday.

Big plays

K-State scored on a 75-yard run from Dylan Edwards against UCF, giving the Wildcats a 31-10 lead in the third quarter.

“We’re getting too many explosive plays [against us] on defense, not getting as many right now on offense,” Klieman said.

“I know we did get the big run with Dylan [Edwards], but we have to be a little bit more efficient on offense and get a few more explosive plays, and we cannot give up the amount of explosive plays as we are on defense.”

Football coaches talk all the time about two things that determine the outcome of game: winning the turnover battle, and explosive plays.

As an underdog, on the road, K-State could use an explosive play or two.

Winning the turnover battle

K-State won the turnover margin at UCF by 3-1. Getting an early, or timely, turnover at Baylor might knock a little swagger out of the crowd and the opponent.

Winning in turnovers often can turn an underdog into a winner.

Why Baylor will win

Sawyer Robertson

The senior leads the nation in passing yards per game with an average of 342.6. He has 17 touchdown passes to only three interceptions. He has passed for 1,713 yards.

K-State ranks 74th in defense, allowing 362 yards per game. Baylor ranks 11th in total offense at 504.2 yards per game.

This looks like the pathway to a Baylor victory.

The rushing attack

With Robertson taking up most of the oxygen, it’s surprising to learn that Baylor averages 154.8 yards on the ground.

Sophomore running back Bryson Washington averages 5.3 yards per carry and has five rushing touchdowns. K-State has allowed 181.6 rushing yards per game this season, 116th in the nation.

When teams can run and throw, that spells big trouble for defenses, especially one that is ranked only 74th overall in the country.

Baylor getting healthy

Baylor has several players out injured. Bears coach Dave Aranda is hopeful most will be ready for K-State.

Coach Dave Aranda's Baylor team is 3-2, 1-1 in the Big 12. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Returning players can give a team an emotional boost, plus put the better player back on the field.

The winner: If Baylor’s offense rolls early, K-State will be up against it. The Bears have too many weapons. Baylor 31, K-State 20. Season record: 1-0.

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