How The ACC Tournament Can Impact Louisville's NCAA Tournament Seed

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Following weeks and months of NCAA Tournament projections, we're finally less than a week away from Selection Sunday. For the Louisville men's basketball program, they will make their return to the Big Dance for the first time since 2019, and have the potential to make some serious noise this March.

That being said, while the Big Dance is right on our doorstep, the Cardinals' exact postseason draw is still very much in flux. While Louisville can play a maximum of three games in this week's ACC Tournament, there is still plenty that can happen between now and Sunday that has the potential to alter Louisville's seeding for the NCAA Tournament.

Before we get into how their projection can change, let's take a quick look at their current tournament resume. Louisville currently has a NET ranking of 23rd, hence why - despite being the No. 13 team in the AP Top 25 - they currently are projected to earn a No. 6 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix update. They have a 4-5 record in Quad 1 games, but are 9-1 in Quad 2 games and a perfect 12-0 in Quad 3 and 4.

First, we have Louisville's opening game against either Stanford or Cal in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. The Cardinal currently have a NET rating of 83, with the Golden Bears even lower at 122.

If the Cardinals go one-and-done against either one of these teams, especially Cal since they would be their first Quad 3 loss of the year, it would in all likelihood drop them to a No. 7 seed. Winning against either team isn't enough to move the proverbial needle off the six seed.

Onto the ACC semifinals. If Louisville can make it past their first game in Charlotte, they will have the potential to face the third-seeded Clemson, sixth-seeded SMU or 14th-seeded Syracuse. The Tigers have a NET ranking of 22nd, while the Mustangs come in at 50th and the Orange at 129th.

Barring a stunning turn of events on behalf of Syracuse, this will almost certainly be a matchup against Clemson or SMU. Against either team, this would be a Quad 1 matchup, although if Louisville does face and beat SMU, it could wind up being a Quad 2 win since they are right on the cut-off line. Regardless, while it does have the potential to bump Louisville up a seed since they are a high-end six seed right now, win or loss, it likely would keep them right there.

The only movement that could happen here is if the Cardinals somehow matchup with and subsequently lose to Syracuse, which would probably send them down to the No. 7 seed as it would be an egregious Quad 3 loss.

Now we have the ACC Championship. It goes without saying that here is where the Louisville can do themselves the most favors. The expected matchup if Louisville makes it this far would be against top-seeded Duke, although fourth-seeded Wake Forest and fifth-seeded North Carolina did give the Blue Devils a run for their money in the regular season.

Duke would not only be a Quad 1 matchup, they have the No. 1 ranking in the NET. North Carolina would also be a Quad 1 game with a NET of 40th, while Wake Forest would be a Quad 2 matchup with a NET of 68th. There's also the possibility of facing either Notre Dame, Georgia Tech or Virginia, but it's highly unlikely.

if Louisville drops a Quad 1 matchup in the ACC title game, they will still most likely come away with a No. 6 seed. At that point they will be 5-6 against Quad 1 teams for the season after going 1-1 in Quad 1 games in Charlotte. However, winning the ACC Championship, which would likely put them at 6-5 in Quad 1 games after winning two of them, that would be more than enough to push them to a five seed - or even the four if they beat Duke. The only way an ACC Championship win still keeps them at the six line is if it comes against Georgia Tech, Virginia or Notre Dame - and even if they lose, getting there still likely cements them as a six.

Long story short, this is likely how Louisville's NCAA Tournament seed will shake out following the ACC Tournament:

No. 4 Seed: Two Quad 1 wins w/ACC Championship over Duke
No. 5 Seed: Two Quad 1 wins w/ACC Championship over UNC
No. 6 Seed: One Quad 1 win w/ACC Championship appearance, or ACC Semifinals loss to Clemson/potentially SMU.
No. 7 Seed: Loss to Stanford/Cal in ACC Quarterfinals, or loss to Syracuse in ACC Semifinals

(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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