How The ACC Tournament Could Impact Louisville's NCAA Tournament Seed

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Following weeks and months of NCAA Tournament projections, we're finally less than a week away from Selection Sunday. For the Louisville men's basketball program, they will hope to earn their first win in the Big Dance since 2017 after getting back for the first time in six years last season.

That being said, while the Big Dance is right on our doorstep, the Cardinals' exact postseason draw is still very much in flux. While Louisville can play a maximum of four games in this week's ACC Tournament, there is still plenty that can happen between now and Sunday that has the potential to alter Louisville's seeding for the NCAA Tournament.

Before we get into how their projection can change, let's take a quick look at their current tournament resume. Louisville currently has a NET ranking of 13th, but because they sport a WAB ranking of 25th, they are currently are projected to earn a No. 6 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix update. They have a 7-9 record in Quad 1 games, including 1-8 against Quad 1A, but are a perfect 15-0 in Quad 2-4 games.

First, we have Louisville's opening game against either 11th-seeded SMU or 14th-seeded Syracuse in the second round of the ACC Tournament. The Mustangs currently have a NET rating of 38th, but the Orange come in at just 85th.

Going one-and-down in the ACCs might have NCAA repercussions depending on the matchup. If the Cardinals lose to Syracuse, it could be enough to bump them down to a seven seed, considering both how UofL looked down the stretch and that fact that it would be their first non-Quad 1 loss of the season. Winning against SU isn't enough to move the proverbial needle off the six seed.

If Louisville has to face SMU, it's a slightly different story. The Mustangs are certainly on the wrong side of the bubble right now, but this would still be a Quad 1 matchup. A loss wouldn't be enough to drop them a seed line, but a win here likely isn't enough to gain one, either.

If Louisville can make it past their first game in Charlotte, they will have a rematch with third-seeded Miami in the ACC quarterfinals just five days after their first matchup. The Hurricanes enter the ACC Tournament sporting a NET ranking of 32nd - making this a Quad 1 matchup.

Here is where we could start to see some seed movement. Should the Cards take down the Canes, this should be enough to push them up to a five seed. Especially if they beat SMU the day before, which would give them back-to-back Quad 1 wins. A loss to Miami likely locks Louisville in as a six seed regardless of first opponent, considering they earned at least one win during conference championship week.

Onto the ACC semifinals. Should the Cardinals make it this far, in all likelihood, this would be a matchup against second-seeded Virginia. Seventh-seeded NC State, 10th-seeded Stanford and 15th-seeded Pitt are also in this pod of the bracket.

A hypothetical semifinals appearance for Louisville is more than likely going to be a Quad 1 game, as Virginia sports a NET ranking of 14th and NC State's NET comes in at 35th. While Stanford is at 59th, they theoretically could work their way to a Quad 1 matchup - which is 50th or better on a neutral floor - if they get to the semifinals.

Should the Cards get to the semis and subsequently win, this will be more than enough to bump them up to a five seed. Barring some insane chains of events in the ACC Tournament, this would give UofL at least two Quad 1 win to get them up to .500 in such matchups. But regardless, getting this far likely locks them into at least a five-seed anyways.

Now we have the ACC Championship. It goes without saying that here is where the Louisville can do themselves the most favors. The expected matchup if Louisville makes it this far, unsurprisingly, would be against top-seeded Duke.

Duke would not only be a Quad 1 matchup, they have the No. 1 ranking in the NET. Fourth-seeded North Carolina and fifth-seeded Clemson would also be Quad 1 games with NET rankings of 23rd and 36th, respectively. There's also the possibility of facing either Florida State, Cal, Virginia Tech or Wake Forest, but you have a better chance at winning the lottery than this happening.

Should Louisville get to the ACC Championship and pull off a stunner against Duke, that could theoretically get them all the way up to a No. 4 seed considering Duke is the favorite to win the national championship right now.

Losing to the Blue Devils, or winning against North Carolina or Clemson, would still at minimum likely make them a high-end five seed. Losing against the Tar Heels or Tigers probably makes them a low-end five seed at least, considering the Quad 1 wins needed to get there to begin with.

Long story short, this is likely how Louisville's NCAA Tournament seed will shake out following the ACC Tournament:

No. 4 Seed: Three Quad 1 wins w/ACC Championship over Duke.
No. 5 Seed: Two Quad 1 wins w/ACC Championship appearance vs. Duke; Three Quad 1 wins w/ACC Championship over UNC/Clemson; Two Quad 1 wins w/loss to Virginia/NC State in ACC Semifinals.
No. 6 Seed: One Quad 1 win w/loss to Virginia/NC State in ACC Semifinals; Two Quad 1 wins w/loss to Pitt in ACC Semifinals; Loss to Miami in ACC Quarterfinals; Loss to SMU in ACC Second Round.
No. 7 Seed: Loss to Syracuse in ACC Second Round.

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