Post-Regular Season Louisville MBB NCAA Tournament Projections

The Cardinals are starting to trend in the right direction ahead of the Big Dance.
Jan 13, 2026; Louisville, Kentucky, USA;  Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) dribbles around the screen of forward Sananda Fru (13) against Virginia Cavaliers guard Dallin Hall (30) during the first half at KFC Yum! Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images
Jan 13, 2026; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) dribbles around the screen of forward Sananda Fru (13) against Virginia Cavaliers guard Dallin Hall (30) during the first half at KFC Yum! Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Louisville men's basketball program might not have had the best final month of the regular season, but they at least have some momentum.

The Cardinals were finally able to earn their first Quad 1A win with a 92-89 takedown of No. 22 Miami in Coral Gables, earning the No. 6 seed for the ACC Tournament as a result. Louisville will get their run in the ACC Tournament started this Wednesday, Mar. 11 at 2:30 p.m. EST against SMU or Syracuse.

While this season has been a slight disappointment when compared to preseason expectations, second-year head coach Pat Kelsey still has Louisville in a good standing for the NCAA Tournament. According to BracketMatrix, a website that averages out several dozen NCAA Tournament projections among major "bracketologists," the Cardinals average out to a six seed in their most recent update (Mar. 8).

So where do some of these projections have Louisville going for the Big Dance? Below is a sampling from some of the more noteworthy NCAA Tournament projectors.

Selection Sunday is set for Sunday, Mar. 15, with the First Four set for Mar. 17-18. The first and second rounds are scheduled for Mar. 19-22, with the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight slated for Mar. 26-29. The Final Four from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will take place on Apr. 4, with the national championship set for Apr. 6.

Sports Illustrated

  • Projector: Kevin Sweeney
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 SMU/Santa Clara
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Troy
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: UConn, Florida, Purdue, Texas Tech

ESPN

  • Projector: Joe Lunardi
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU/Auburn
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Florida, Houston, Nebraska, Virginia

CBS

  • Projector: David Cobb
  • Seed/Region: No. 5 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 12 Miami of Ohio
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Liberty
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Michigan, UConn, Iowa State, Vanderbilt

The Athletic

  • Projector: Joe Rexrode
  • Seed/Region: No. 7 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 10 UCLA
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 2 Florida vs. No. 15 Troy
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: UConn, Florida, Purdue, Kansas

USA Today

  • Projector: Erick Smith
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Miami of Ohio
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Arizona, Illinois, Nebraska, Alabama

Fox Sports

  • Projector: Mike DeCourcy
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Ohio State/New Mexico
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Austin Peay
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Michigan, Houston, Alabama, Virginia

SBNation

  • Projector: Chris Dobbertean
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Santa Clara/Auburn
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Navy
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: UConn, Florida, Texas Tech

BracketVille

  • Projector: Dave Ommen
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Indiana/Santa Clara
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Nebraska Tech vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Florida, Houston, Nebraska, Texas Tech
  • Projector: Tim Krueger
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in West
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Miami of Ohio
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Arizona, Illinois, Gonzaga, Alabama

On3

  • Projector: James Fletcher III
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Santa Clara
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Troy
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Florida, UConn, Purdue, Kansas

Palm Brackets

  • Projector: Jerry Palm
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 UIC
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Michigan, UConn, Alabama, Kansas

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(Photo of Ryan Conwell, Sananda Fru: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. Also an avid video gamer, a bourbon enthusiast, and fierce dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic