Following Rocky First Season at Louisville, Kenny Payne Nails First Full Offseason

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - When Kenny Payne took to the podium following Louisville's season-ending loss to Boston College in the ACC Tournament back on Mar. 7, he knew that he had a tall task sitting squarely in front of him.

The head coach of the Cardinals had just endured a 4-28 season in his first year at the helm, which was arguably the worst season in the storied 109-year history of the UofL men's basketball program. It not only set the program record for most losses in a single season by a wide margin, but it was the first time Louisville had experienced back-to-back losing seasons since World War II.

If he were to get things turned around guide the Cardinals back on a path towards winning - as well as cool down the hot coaching seat in which he sat upon - it would start with turning the roster almost completely on its head.

"Now, I have to take the next few days and gather my thoughts and see how do I do this in a way that I bring back Louisville to where it needs to be," Payne said after the 80-62 loss to the Eagles.

The dominoes started falling quickly. Just three days after the end of their season, all three members of the Louisville's 2022 recruiting class - Kamari Lands, Devin Ree and Fabio Basili - all entered the transfer portal. In the weeks the following, the number of players to enter the portal grew to seven, with El Ellis, Jae'Lyn Withers, Sydney Curry and Roosevelt Wheeler all opting to move on as well.

This would serve as the perfect chance for Payne - as well as the rest of his staff - to put on display the recruiting prowess that helped make him such an enticing coaching candidate for Louisville after they mutually parted ways with Chris Mack back in January of 2022. Payne took this opportunity and ran with it.

Roughly two-and-a-half months after the end of Louisville's 2022-23 season, the roster for their 2023-24 campaign - barring any late surprise entires into the transfer portal - is now set. On paper, it will be one of the most talented Cardinals teams that we have seen in years.

In total, Payne and staff are welcoming nine newcomers for next season: five high school prospects, three Division I transfers and a JUCO transfer.

All five of the incoming true freshman - Trentyn Flowers, Dennis Evans, Kaleb Glenn, Curtis Williams Jr. and Ty-Laur Johnson - are all regarded as at least a four-star prospect by the 247Sports Composite. Flowers comes in as a composite five-star, and Evans is regarded as a five-star by Rivals' in-house rankings.

Add in JUCO transfer Koron Davis, and their traditional recruiting class comes in at No. 5 in the nation by the Composite. It's Louisville's highest-ranked recruiting class since the 2013 and 2014 classes both came in at No. 5, and in the modern recruiting era (since 1999), only the 2004 and 2011 class had a higher ranking (both No. 3).

The Cardinals' trio of transfer newcomers in Skyy Clark, Tre White and Danilo Jovanovich also make up the No. 27 transfer class in the nation according to 247Sports. These nine newcomers will be joining returners Mike James, J.J. Traynor, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Emmanuel Okorafor for next season.

When put all together, it has the makings of a potentially special team. According to Bart Torvik's 2024 college basketball projections, as of this writing, Louisville is projected to have the second-most talented team in all of college basketball with a projected effective talent rating of 83.1. The only school with a higher number is fellow ACC member Duke with a projected effective talent rating of 90.3.

This is the level of talent that Louisville fans expected Payne to bring in when he was hired last March. During his ten seasons as an assistant at Kentucky, he played a significant role in helping bring 40 composite five-stars to Lexington, with their 2013 and 2017 classes each having six. In every one of his seasons with the Wildcats, they secured a top-two recruiting class, including five No. 1 classes, according to 247Sports.

Unfortunately, Payne was always going to face an uphill battle when it came to recruiting in his first offseason. Not only did he have an incredibly late start to bringing in Class of 2022 prospects, he also was still dealing with the fact that Louisville's infractions case with the NCAA had still not been resolved. Like it or not, that had a very real impact in Payne's ability to recruit.

While Lands and Ree were regarded as four-star prospects, Louisville's three-man 2022 recruiting class barely cracked the top-25 at No. 24 overall. The Cardinals' two-man transfer class of Huntley-Hatfield and now-walk-on Hercy Miller ranked 67th.

Once the case was resolved last November, resulting in Louisville avoiding major penalties, it allowed Payne the opportunity to finally flex his recruiting muscles.

"It's unfortunate that when I got the job -- the timing of the job, people don't talk about it a lot, I didn't have a choice in a lot of things," Payne said back in March. "Everybody was saying that we would get the death penalty, that they would do away with basketball. When you're out recruiting and you're hearing kids are apprehensive and nervous about coming to you, and then the ruling came out, I think, the end of October or November, so now I have to -- for me it's probably the first real chance I have to equal the playing field without preconceived notions."

And equal the playing field he did. Regardless of your thoughts on how Payne's first season as the head coach went, it's hard to deny that he and his staff have nailed the offseason when it comes to a roster-flipping standpoint. That's even with guys like like D.J. Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw and Mackenzie Mgbako - three highly-touted prospects that Louisville was in the mix for - not in the fold.

Payne the recruiter has proven himself. Now, the onus is on Payne the coach.

While many of Louisville's issues last season can be derived from player performance, such as lackluster effort and a propensity to turn the ball over at an extremely high rate, a lot of criticism was directed towards Payne himself. Namely, his X's and O's knowledge as a coach and overall feel for the game.

Sure, last season was Payne's first season as a head coach at any level, and some adjustment was going to be needed. However, his baseline coaching acumen seemed to be lower than many expected it to be, myself included. Going back to Bart Torvik's 2024 college basketball projections, even with the second-most talented team in college basketball, Louisville is being projected to go just 12-19 next season.

Louisville is going to be a young but very talented team next season, which is par for the course given that Payne is a John Calipari protégé. With a full year as a head coach now under his belt, now it's up to Payne to build on those experiences and produce a winner.

Fortunately, he has the horses to do so in 2023-24. For that much, Payne and his staff deserve the utmost credit.

(Photo of Kenny Payne: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)

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