Louisville Report

Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:
Matthew McGavic|
Jan 14, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Noah Waterman (93) makes a lay up against the Syracuse Orange in the first half at the JMA Wireless Dome.
Jan 14, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Noah Waterman (93) makes a lay up against the Syracuse Orange in the first half at the JMA Wireless Dome. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

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Louisville CardinalsVirginia Cavaliers

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (13-5, 6-1 ACC) is set to face Virginia (8-9, 1-5 ACC) on Saturday, Jan. 18 at 12:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

Virginia

Louisville

AP/USAT

NR/NR

RV/RV

SOS

39th

6th

SOR

123rd

27th

BPI

111th

40th

NET

139th

28th

RPI

129th

14th

KenPom

132nd

30th

Torvik

122nd

29th

EvanMiya

134th

27th

Team Leaders

Virginia

Louisville

Points

Isaac McKneely (11.9)

Chucky Hepburn (15.6)

Rebounds

Jacob Cofie (5.4)

J'Vonne Hadley (7.8)

Assists

Andrew Rohde (3.5)

Chucky Hepburn (5.7)

Steals

Andrew Rohde (1.3)

Chucky Hepburn (2.5)

Blocks

Blake Buchanan (1.1)

James Scott (0.8)

Scoring

Virginia

Louisville

Points Per Game

61.0

78.2

Field Goal %

42.7%

43.7%

FGM/FGA Per Game

21.6/50.6

26.4/60.5

Three Point %

35.5%

30.9%

3PTM/3PTA Per Game

7.7/21.7

9.6/30.9

Free Throw %

75.4%

72.4

FTM/FTA Per Game

10.1/13.4

15.8/21.8

Rebounding

Virginia

Louisville

Rebounds Per Game

30.7

38.5

Off. Reb. Per Game

6.9

12.7

Def. Reb. Per Game

23.8

25.8

Rebound Margin

-3.1

5.2

Defense

Virginia

Louisville

Opp. Points Per Game

63.4

69.7

Opp. FG%

41.1%

43.7%

Opp. 3PT%

32.5%

34.8%

Steals Per Game

5.1

6.9

Blocks Per Game

3.9

3.0

Turnovers Forced Per Game

9.6

13.5

Ball Handling

Virginia

Louisville

Assists Per Game

14.2

13.7

Turnovers Per Game

11.0

11.6

Turnovers Margin

-1.4

1.9

Assist/Turnover Ratio

1.3

1.2

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 87.8 percent chance to win against Virginia. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 12.1 (40th overall), whereas the Cavaliers have a BPI rating of 3.3 (111th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 90 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers, with a projected final score of 71-57 in favor of Louisville. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +19.32 (30th overall), whereas Virginia has an adjusted efficiency margin of +2.35 (132nd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 91 percent chance to take down the Hoos, with a projected final score of 69-56 in favor of Louisville. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .8957 (29th overall), whereas Virginia has a "Barthag" of .5931 (122nd overall).

(Photo of Noah Waterman: Mark Konezny - Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic

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