NC State vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds for ACC Tournament Quarterfinal

The No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers are looking to make a deep run in the 2026 ACC Tournament, and they’ll start their journey on Thursday against the NC State Wolfpack.

NC State picked up a 10-point win (98-88) over the Pitt Panthers on Wednesday, and it’s set as just a 4.5-point underdog in this matchup with the Cavaliers.

Virginia dominated the two meetings between these teams, winning 76-61 and 90-61. It’s also won 11 of its last 12 games. The only loss came to the No. 1 team in the country in the Duke Blue Devils.

Meanwhile, NC State lost four games in a row before the ACC Tournament, slipping to No. 35 in KenPom’s latest rankings despite having the No. 18 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country.

Can the Wolfpack compete with the Cavaliers, who are just 11-14-2 against the spread when favored this season?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this ACC Tournament quarterfinal matchup.

NC State vs. Virginia Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

NC State +4.5 (-110)
Virginia -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

NC State: +180
Virginia: -218

Total

151.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

NC State vs. Virginia How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 12
Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Spectrum Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
NC State record: 20-12
Virginia record: 27-4

NC State vs. Virginia Key Player to Watch

Thijs De Ridder, Freshman, Virginia

A potential first-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Thijs De Ridder has put together a solid freshman season for the Cavaliers.

He’s averaging 15.9 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game while shooting 51.3 percent from the field and 34.1 percent from 3. He torched the Wolfpack in two meetings, averaging 16.5 points per game while shooting 68.8 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from 3.

Virginia isn’t known as an offensive team, but De Ridder is a terror to deal with, scoring at least 10 points in each of his last six games.

NC State vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

Don’t overthink this matchup, even though NC State’s offense is one of the best in the country.

The Wolfpack are 31st in effective field goal percentage and 12th in 3-point percentage, but they’ve scored just 61 points in both of their games against Virginia, losing both games by double digits.

So, this 4.5-point spread seems like a slap in the face to the Cavaliers, who have dominated everyone in their path (except Duke) over the last several weeks.

Virginia’s defense (16th in the country, per KenPom), holds opponents to the sixth-worst effective field goal percentage in the country and the eighth-worst percentage on 2-point shots. So, NC State is likely going to live and die by the 3-ball on Thursday.

Usually the Cavaliers have an inept offense, but they are 59th in eFG% and sixth in offensive rebound rate this season. This is a more complete team than the odds are letting on. I’ll gladly lay the points with Virginia on Thursday afternoon.

Pick: Virginia -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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