Louisville Report

Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Florida State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles for their Saturday rematch, and who the statistical models favor:
Matthew McGavic|
Feb 12, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Reyne Smith (6) reacts during the first half of the game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center.
Feb 12, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Reyne Smith (6) reacts during the first half of the game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center. | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

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Louisville CardinalsFlorida State Seminoles

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (20-6, 13-2 ACC) is set to face Florida State (16-10, 7-8 ACC) on Saturday, Feb. 22 at 12:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

Florida State

Louisville

AP/USAT

NR/NR

25th/22nd

SOS

77th

25th

SOR

80th

21st

BPI

82nd

33rd

NET

88th

27th

RPI

112th

20th

KenPom

87th

25th

Torvik

91st

17th

EvanMiya

89th

19th

Team Leaders

Florida State

Louisville

Points

Jamir Watkins (17.9)

Chucky Hepburn (15.0)

Rebounds

Malique Ewin (8.0)

J'Vonne Hadley (7.2)

Assists

Daquan Davis (2.7)

Chucky Hepburn (6.2)

Steals

Chandler Jackson (1.4)

Chucky Hepburn (2.4)

Blocks

Bol Bowen (1.6)

James Scott (0.8)

Scoring

Florida State

Louisville

Points Per Game

75.3

79.5

Field Goal %

45.4%

45.1%

FGM/FGA Per Game

26.3/57.8

27.3/60.5

Three Point %

31.4%

32.8%

3PTM/3PTA Per Game

6.2/19.6

10.0/30.3

Free Throw %

71.2%

73.7%

FTM/FTA Per Game

16.6/23.3

15.0/20.3

Rebounding

Florida State

Louisville

Rebounds Per Game

35.5

38.1

Off. Reb. Per Game

10.5

11.8

Def. Reb. Per Game

25.0

26.3

Rebound Margin

0.3

5.1

Defense

Florida State

Louisville

Opp. Points Per Game

70.7

69.0

Opp. FG%

40.9%

43.3%

Opp. 3PT%

31.9%

34.2%

Steals Per Game

8.2

6.6

Blocks Per Game

4.9

3.0

Turnovers Forced Per Game

14.1

13.1

Ball Handling

Florida State

Louisville

Assists Per Game

13.5

14.6

Turnovers Per Game

12.5

11.2

Turnover Margin

1.6

1.9

Assist/Turnover Ratio

1.1

1.3

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has an 84.7 percent chance to win against Florida State. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 13.9 (33rd overall), whereas the Seminoles have a BPI rating of 7.0 (82nd overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have an 89 percent chance to take down the Seminoles, with a projected final score of 81-68 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +22.90 (25th overall), whereas Florida State has an adjusted efficiency margin of +8.74 (87th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 91 percent chance to take down the 'Noles, with a projected final score of 83-68 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9270 (17th overall), whereas Florida State has a "Barthag" of .6957 (91st overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 85, Florida State 69.

(Photo of Reyne Smith: Jaylynn Nash - Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic

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