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One Final Look at Louisville's NCAA Tournament Projections

Selection Sunday is finally here, so we’re taking one last look at the Cardinals’ outlook for the Big Dance.
Louisville Cardinals guard Mikel Brown Jr. (0) drives to the basket as the Louisville Cardinals host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in an NCAA basketball game at the KFC Yum! Center, Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026, in Louisville.
Louisville Cardinals guard Mikel Brown Jr. (0) drives to the basket as the Louisville Cardinals host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in an NCAA basketball game at the KFC Yum! Center, Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026, in Louisville. | Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. - At long last, we have finally reached Selection Sunday. Following weeks and months of projections as to who will make the NCAA Tournament, the time-honored tradition of filling out brackets for March Madness officially gets underway tonight.

While this season has been a slight disappointment when compared to preseason expectations, the Louisville men's basketball program still has a chance to earn their first tournament win since 2017, as they're a stone cold lock to make the Big Dance. According to BracketMatrix, a website that averages out several dozen NCAA Tournament projections among major "bracketologists," the Cardinals average out to a six seed in their most recent update (Mar. 14).

So where do some of these projections have Louisville going for the Big Dance? Below is a sampling from some of the more noteworthy NCAA Tournament projectors.

Selection Sunday is set for Sunday, Mar. 15, with the First Four set for Mar. 17-18. The first and second rounds are scheduled for Mar. 19-22, with the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight slated for Mar. 26-29. The Final Four from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will take place on Apr. 4, with the national championship set for Apr. 6.

Sports Illustrated

  • Projector: Kevin Sweeney
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in West
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU/Texas
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Idaho
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Arizona, Michigan State, Alabama, Virginia

ESPN

  • Projector: Joe Lunardi
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in East
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU/Missouri
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Wright State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Duke, Iowa State, Illinois, Vanderbilt

CBS

  • Projector: David Cobb
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Missouri/VCU
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Michigan, UConn, Iowa State, Alabama

The Athletic

  • Projector: Joe Rexrode
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 South Florida
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Troy
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Michigan, Houston, Purdue, Virginia

USA Today

  • Projector: Erick Smith
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in West
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Texas
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Arizona, Illinois, Gonzaga, Virginia

Fox Sports

  • Projector: Mike DeCourcy
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in East
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU/Missouri
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Wright State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Duke, UConn, Nebraska, Kansas

SBNation

  • Projector: Chris Dobbertean
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in East
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Missouri/VCU
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Idaho
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Duke, Iowa State, Michigan State, Alabama

BracketVille

  • Projector: Dave Ommen
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 South Florida
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Tennessee State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Michigan, Iowa State, Nebraska, Virginia
  • Projector: Tim Krueger
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in East
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Santa Clara
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Tennessee State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Duke, Houston, Nebraska, Alabama

On3

  • Projector: James Fletcher III
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in East
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU/Texas
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Duke, Iowa State, Michigan State, St. John's

The Field of 68

  • Projector: Staff Pick
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in East
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Miami of Ohio/VCU
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Duke, Iowa State, Illinois, Vanderbilt

Palm Brackets

  • Projector: Jerry Palm
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 South Florida
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Troy
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Michigan, Iowa State, Purdue, Alabama

NCAA

  • Projector: Andy Katz
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Missouri
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Florida, Houston, Nebraska, Virginia

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(Photo of Mikel Brown Jr.: Jeff Faughender - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. Also an avid video gamer, a bourbon enthusiast, and fierce dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic