Louisville Report

Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Cal

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Golden Bears for their Wednesday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:
Matthew McGavic|
Louisville huddled during their game against Pitt at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. on Mar. 1, 2025.
Louisville huddled during their game against Pitt at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. on Mar. 1, 2025. | Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Louisville CardinalsCalifornia Golden Bears

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (23-6, 16-2 ACC) is set to face Cal (13-16, 6-12 ACC) on Saturday, Mar. 5 at 9:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Golden Bears:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

Cal

Louisville

AP/USAT

NR/NR

19th/17th

SOS

77th

30th

SOR

136th

14th

BPI

108th

30th

NET

126th

25th

RPI

190th

19th

KenPom

118th

24th

Torvik

123rd

18th

EvanMiya

117th

23rd

Team Leaders

Cal

Louisville

Points

Andrej Stojakovic (17.2)

Chucky Hepburn (16.3)

Rebounds

Mady Sissoko (7.8)

J'Vonne Hadley (7.3)

Assists

Jovan Blackshear Jr. (2.5)

Chucky Hepburn (6.0)

Steals

Rytis Petraitis (1.2)

Chucky Hepburn (2.4)

Blocks

Mady Sissoko (1.2)

James Scott (0.9)

Scoring

Cal

Louisville

Points Per Game

74.5

79.5

Field Goal %

42.1%

45.4%

FGM/FGA Per Game

25.1/59.6

27.1/59.7

Three Point %

32.2%

33.1%

3PTM/3PTA Per Game

7.2/22.5

9.8/29.4

Free Throw %

74.7%

74.5%

FTM/FTA Per Game

17.1/22.9

15.6/20.9

Rebounding

Cal

Louisville

Rebounds Per Game

37.1

37.4

Off. Reb. Per Game

13.2

11.2

Def. Reb. Per Game

23.9

26.2

Rebound Margin

2.5

4.3

Defense

Cal

Louisville

Opp. Points Per Game

75.4

69.2

Opp. FG%

46.6%

43.4%

Opp. 3PT%

37.6%

33.8%

Steals Per Game

6.1

6.7

Blocks Per Game

3.7

2.8

Turnovers Forced Per Game

11.1

13.3

Ball Handling

Cal

Louisville

Assists Per Game

10.5

14.3

Turnovers Per Game

11.6

11.3

Turnover Margin

-0.5

2.0

Assist/Turnover Ratio

0.9

1.3

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 90.4 percent chance to win against Cal. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 13.9 (30th overall), whereas the Golden Bears have a BPI rating of 3.7 (108th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 93 percent chance to take down the Golden Bears, with a projected final score of 84-68 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +22.54 (24th overall), whereas Cal has an adjusted efficiency margin of +4.09 (118th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have an 94 percent chance to take down the Golden Bears, with a projected final score of 85-66 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9247 (18th overall), whereas Cal has a "Barthag" of .5899 (123rd overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 88, Cal 70.

(Photo of Louisville Players: Sam Upshaw Jr. - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic

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