Louisville's Three Keys to Taking Down USF in the NCAA Tournament

Here are the three main ways that the Cardinals can take down the Bulls to start their run in the Big Dance.

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Adrian Wooley (14) with the ball as Miami (FL) Hurricanes guard Dante Allen (35) defends in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - It's almost time for the Big Dance. The Louisville men's basketball program has made the NCAA Tournament for the second time in as many seasons under head coach Pat Kelsey, and this year, they'll get their run started against South Florida. Tip-off against the Bulls from the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. is scheduled for Thursday, Mar. 19 at 1:30 p.m. EST.

Here are the three keys to victory for the Cardinals:

Take better care of the basketball.

It's no secret that one of Louisville's biggest hinderances this season has been their propensity to turn the ball over at an elevated rate. Heading into the NCAA Tournament, their 11.6 turnovers per game ranks 190th amongst the 365 D1 teams. They've had 12 games where they've turned it over at least 13 times, with their season-high being 18 against Georgia Tech.

Unfortunately, they'll be facing a South Florida team that thrives when it comes forcing turnovers. Their 9.2 steals per game ranks 13th in the nation, while their 14.27 forced turnovers per game is 26th. It's a big reason why they average 14.7 fastbreak points per game, which comes in at 24th nationally. Guard Joseph Pinion (1.7 SPG) and forward Izaiyah Nelson (1.6 SPG) are particularly adept at initiating transition offense for points off turnovers.

Fortunately, Louisville has gotten better in recent weeks when it comes to taking care of the basketball. Over their last six games, they've cut their turnovers to just 9.0 per game - although they did have 12 in their most recent game against Miami.

Limit second chance opportunities.

When it comes to getting the most out of your possessions in terms of scoring opportunities, there are few teams who do it better than South Florida, and that's because of their extreme rebounding prowess.

The Bulls' 15.48 offensive rebounds per game is the third-most in all of D1 hoops, while their 38.2 offensive rebounding percentage is seventh. Nelson - the AAC Player of the Year - is fantastic in second chance scoring around the rim, as his 9.6 rebounds per game is 17th in the nation, his 14.6 offensive rebounding rate is 36th, and his 63.1 shooting percentage on two-point tries led the AAC.

Limiting USF's ability to extend possessions (and limiting their amount of scoring opportunities in general) will be crucial for Louisville - mostly because USF is not a good shooting team at all. Their 43.9 shooting percentage is just 257th in D1, their 33.2 three-point shooting percentage is 223rd, and their 51.2 effective field goal percentage is 210th.

South Florida's 15th-ranked tempo is the main reason why they are able to score the eighth-most points per game at 87.7. If Louisville can take advantage of the fact that they are actually a good defensive rebounding team (31st ranked defensive rebounding rate at 26.9), they can make a significant impact in the amount of points USF can score.

Don’t be the first one in foul trouble.

You can break down as many individual matchups and team vs. team metrics all you want, but herein lies arguably the most important key of all.

South Florida does an incredible job of not only getting to the free throw line by virtue of drawing fouls, but also executing at the charity stripe. They draw 31st-most fouls per game at 19.7, and are first in the nation in both free throw makes (20.2) and attempts (27.1). Their actual shooting percentage at the free throw line is average at 74.4 percent, but with the amount of times they get to the line, it's almost a moot point.

Conversely, USF is also one of the worst teams in the nation at being the fouler. They commit 19.5 fouls per game, which ranks 33rd in the nation. Louisville's certainly had their own issues with defending without fouling, as their 18.4 per game is 270th, but they at least are better at shooting free throws at 76.9 percent.

One things for sure: there are going to be a good amount of fouls called between both Louisville and South Florida. If the Cards can be the one that avoids getting the whistle called on them more to start the game, it can help them get an early advantage over the Bulls.

(Photo of Adrian Wooley: Bob Donnan - Imagn Images)

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