Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Duke

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils for their ACC Tournament matchup, and who the statistical models favor.

Dec 8, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Khani Rooths (9) dribbles against Duke Blue Devils forward Mason Gillis (18) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Duke defeated Louisville 76-65. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (27-6, 18-2 ACC) is set to face Duke (30-3, 19-1 ACC) on Saturday, Mar. 15 at 8:30 p.m. EST at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. in the ACC Tournament Championship. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Duke	Louisville
AP/USAT	1st/1st	13th/13th
SOS	41st	42nd
SOR	3rd	9th
BPI	1st	28th
NET	1st	23rd
RPI	3rd	13th
KenPom	1st	23rd
Torvik	2nd	19th
EvanMiya	1st	20th

Team Leaders

	Duke	Louisville
Points	*Kon Knueppel (14.2)	Chucky Hepburn (16.3)
Rebounds	*Khaman Maluach (6.7)	J'Vonne Hadley (7.4)
Assists	*Sion James (4.1)	Chucky Hepburn (5.9)
Steals	*+Kon Knueppel (1.0)	Chucky Hepburn (2.5)
Blocks	*Khaman Maluach (1.2)	James Scott (0.9)

*Cooper Flagg (ankle) is OUT for the matchup.
+Maliq Brown (shoulder) is QUESTIONABLE for the matchup.

Scoring

	Duke	Louisville
Points Per Game	83.0	79.1
Field Goal %	48.9%	45.6%
FGM/FGA Per Game	29.1/59.4	27.0/59.2
Three Point %	37.7%	33.2%
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	10.1/26.8	9.5/28.6
Free Throw %	78.4%	74.8%
FTM/FTA Per Game	14.8/18.8	15.5/20.8

Rebounding

	Duke	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	38.7	37.4
Off. Reb. Per Game	11.3	11.0
Def. Reb. Per Game	27.4	26.4
Rebound Margin	8.4	4.1

Defense

	Clemson	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	61.9	68.8
Opp. FG%	38.6%	42.4%
Opp. 3PT%	31.0%	33.6%
Steals Per Game	7.0	6.5
Blocks Per Game	3.8	2.9
Turnovers Forced Per Game	11.8	13.0

Ball Handling

	Duke	Louisville
Assists Per Game	16.9	14.1
Turnovers Per Game	9.6	11.5
Turnover Margin	2.2	1.5
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.8	1.2

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 13.8 percent chance to win against Duke. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 14.0 (28th overall), whereas the Blue Devils have a BPI rating of 24.8 (1st overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 17 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils, with a projected final score of 79-69 in favor of DU. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +22.69 (23rd overall), whereas Duke has an adjusted efficiency margin of +38.09 (1st overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 20 percent chance to take down the Devils, with a projected final score of 77-69 in favor of DU. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9286 (19th overall), whereas Duke has a "Barthag" of .9806 (2nd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Duke 75, Louisville 72.

(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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