Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Duke

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils for their Monday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) scored 24 points in the loss against Duke Blue during ACC play January 6, 2026. | Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (14-5, 4-3 ACC) is set to face Duke (18-1, 7-0 ACC) on Monday, Jan. 26 at 7:00 p.m. EST at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Duke	Louisville
AP/USAT	5th/5th	23rd/21st
SOS	21st	40th
SOR	4th	34th
NET	3rd	17th
RPI	2nd	34th
BPI	1st	7th
KenPom	3rd	16th
Torvik	8th	15th
EvanMiya	3rd	19th

Team Leaders

	Duke	Louisville
Points	Cameron Boozer (23.7)	Ryan Conwell (19.5)
Rebounds	Cameron Boozer (9.9)	Sananda Fru (7.1)
Assists	Cameron Boozer (4.1)	Mikel Brown Jr. (5.2)
Steals	Cameron Boozer (1.9)	Ryan Conwell (1.3)
Blocks	Patrick Ngongba II (1.3)	Sananda Fru (1.2)

Scoring

	Duke	Louisville
Points Per Game	85.7	87.8
Field Goal %	49.8	46.9
FGM/FGA Per Game	29.2/58.6	29.5/62.8
Three Point %	34.4	35.3
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	9.2/26.8	11.9/33.8
Free Throw %	71.7	77.2
FTM/FTA Per Game	18.1/25.3	16.9

Rebounding

	Duke	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	40.2	41.4
Off. Reb. Per Game	12.4	12.6
Def. Reb. Per Game	27.8	28.8
Rebound Margin	9.6	7.9

Defense

	Duke	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	65.3	69.6
Opp. FG%	39.3	39.3
Opp. 3PT%	31.1	33.5
Steals Per Game	8.5	7.3
Blocks Per Game	4.1	3.3
Turnovers Forced Per Game	13.8	12.6

Ball Handling

	Duke	Louisville
Assists Per Game	17.5	17.8
Turnovers Per Game	11.4	11.5
Turnover Margin	2.4	1.1
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.5	1.5

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 22.7 percent chance to win against the Blue Devils. Louisville has a BPI rating of 20.4 (7th overall), whereas Duke has a BPI rating of 24.5 (1st overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 22 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils, with a projected final score of 83-74 in favor of Duke. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +26.29 (16th overall), whereas Duke has an adjusted efficiency margin of +33.71 (3rd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have an 31 percent chance to take down the Devils, with a projected final score of 81-76 in favor of Duke. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9483 (15th overall), whereas Duke has a "Barthag" of .9564 (8th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Duke 80, Louisville 78.

(Photo of Ryan Conwell: Matt Stone - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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