Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. USF

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Bulls for their NCAA Tournament matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Jan 17, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard J'vonne Hadley (1) brings the ball up court against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first half at the Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (23-10, 11-7 ACC) is set to face South Florida (25-8, 15-3 American) on Thursday, Mar. 19 at 1:30 p.m. EST at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Bulls:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	USF	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/RV	23rd/24th
SOS	95th	41st
SOR	50th	26th
NET	45th	17th
WAB	54th	24th
RPI	29th	27th
BPI	51st	11th
KenPom	47th	19th
Torvik	50th	17th
EvanMiya	44th	18th

Team Leaders

	USF	Louisville
Points	Wes Enis Jr. (16.8)	Ryan Conwell (18.7)
Rebounds	Izaiyah Nelson (9.6)	Sananda Fru (6.0)
Assists	C.J. Brown (4.8)	Mikel Brown Jr. (4.7)
Steals	Joseph Pinion (1.7)	Mikel Brown Jr. (1.2)
Blocks	Daimion Collins (1.5)	Sananda Fru (1.4)

Scoring

	USF	Louisville
Points Per Game	87.7	84.8
Field Goal %	43.9	47.0
FGM/FGA Per Game	29.0/66.0	28.7/61.1
Three Point %	33.2	35.7
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	9.6/29.0	11.5/32.3
Free Throw %	74.4	76.9
FTM/FTA Per Game	20.2/27.1	15.7/20.5

Rebounding

	USF	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	42.7	38.5
Off. Reb. Per. Game	15.5	11.3
Def. Reb. Per Game	27.2	27.1
Rebound Margin	5.0	5.4

Defense

	USF	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	75.5	72.2
Opp. FG%	41.3	42.4
Opp. 3PT%	33.9	32.7
Steals Per Game	9.2	6.9
Blocks Per Game	4.1	3.3
Turnovers Forced Per Game	14.3	11.8

Ball Handling

	USF	Louisville
Assists Per Game	17.2	17.1
Turnovers Per Game	11.2	11.6
Turnover Margin	3.1	0.2
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.54	1.47

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, the Cardinals have a 81.0 percent chance to win against the Bulls. Louisville has a BPI rating of 19.1 (11th overall), whereas South Florida has a BPI rating of 10.5 (51st overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 73 percent chance to take down the Bulls, with a projected final score of 84-78 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +25.41 (19th overall), whereas South Florida has an adjusted efficiency margin of +16.39 (47th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 74 percent chance to take down the Bulls, with a projected final score of 85-78 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9364 (17th overall), whereas South Florida has a "Barthag" of .8353 (50th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 89, South Florida 81.

(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Charles LeClaire - Imagn Images)

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